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#22
11-12-2007, 09:31 PM
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Re: i played this perfectly, right?
[ QUOTE ]
What's your line if he checks a bricked turn? (I always [censored] up spots like that) Oh, nh. I think the flop is close but as long as you don't raise it's not too bad. [/ QUOTE ] yeah that is a tough spot. i think we have to fold to a decent size turn bet if we don't get any more outs. we would need to be a little deeper to call again on the turn UI 
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#25
11-12-2007, 11:19 PM
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Re: i played this perfectly, right?
Going through the odds, and correct me if I'm wrong here.
We'll assume with discounted outs, we improve our hand about 25% of the time. This is assuming 9 hearts to make our flush, and lets say giving us a straight draw gives us an extra say 3 outs (really 6). Lets also assume that villain is going to bet between half pot and full pot. So we'll average it out at $75 for an average bet on the turn. 75% of the time, when the turn is a brick, we're going to have to call a $75 bet on the turn, to win a total of $224, with only a flush draw. Hence we're not getting the correct odds, and its a bad call. This is ignoring the fact that we might be up against a FH already, etc. Villain isn't really deep enough for it to be an effective call on the flop, given the most likely outcome on the turn.
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#28
11-13-2007, 12:06 AM
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Re: i played this perfectly, right?
[ QUOTE ]
You're wrong. Calling on the flop doesn't mean you have to call on the turn. I'm sure he only called because he picked up several extra outs, and the bet was small. [/ QUOTE ] Although I agree with that, my point is why are we calling a pot sized bet on the flop with only a 25% chance to improve. Secondly if we don't improve, the most likely action won't let us call profitably on the turn on the draw we currently have.
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#30
11-13-2007, 12:46 AM
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Re: i played this perfectly, right?
Looking at the implied odds on the flop.
You have 8 outs to the flush. (8 because 1 is either in villains hand, or will make his full house if it comes, i.e. as results given a Kh comes). We can assume this without knowing results if we're sure we're up against an over pair, we won't know exactly which card will make the full, but one of them will. That means we have to win on the next card, or as has been discussed chances are we can't continue. 8/47 outs = 17.02% chance of winning on the next card. Lets ASSUME we are going to capture ALL of villains stack if we hit the next card (i.e. Implied odds best case). Villain has $124.80 left behind after he completes his flop action. That means we're calling $30 to win the pot (currently $39) plus his flop bet $30, plus his remaining stack, for a total of $193.80. 30/193.80 = 15.48% required to call. Now admittedly this odds show that we have 1.54% edge on calling here, so its a very marginal call. But thats some big assumptions. Who's to say that if the Ah comes villain will stack off, change that one out and suddenly it turns a 1.54% call into a 0.60% mistake. Obviously these are very small percentages and the calling line is very close to the folding line, but I don't think its a good enough assumption to say we're going to capture all of villains stack every time enough to make this profitable. My 2c at least, I know everyone here doesn't agree with me [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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