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  #71  
Old 11-13-2007, 12:31 PM
FiSheYe FiSheYe is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

I think we can summarize that calling flop is the best flop play and that raising or calling turn are both valid options but due to the stacksizes and history calling the turn seems superior.
What really bothers me is the question if PA calls a river allin with a flush.
If this is not the case then raising the river has lots of merits as well.
We would turn our flush into a bluff but there is a very little chance he has TT and if we could make him fold a better hand that would be a superb result.
Obviously the only one able to judge that play is Krantz himself, because it requires a lot of background knowledge about PA's play and their session.
About calling or folding the river, as discussed either option is thin and irockhoess made a valid point about metagaming/our image.
I would tend to call here but I don't think folding can be any wrong and I haven't seen convincing arguments to put one option far above another.
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  #72  
Old 11-13-2007, 12:44 PM
Ansky Ansky is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

[ QUOTE ]
obviously calling, and while that's a bad result in a vacuum, it has some pretty solid benefits:


[/ QUOTE ]

Against what range could it possibly be correct to get in 200bbs w/ a gutter and 8 high flush draw here, on a paired board? Getting in your stack here would be real bad.

[ QUOTE ]
a) we get a good idea of the kinds of hands he's willing to stack off with on this flop, and he's going to respond to flop 3bets

[/ QUOTE ]

No, we really don't. We get an idea of 1 hand he will 4bet shove w/ on 466...

[ QUOTE ]
b) he sees us take a completely weird line

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, don't know what it means though.

[ QUOTE ]
I think these benefits + making him fold a jillion hands with 40% equity make a 3bet pretty nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

100bb deep sure, maybe even 150. 200bb its just a spew.
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  #73  
Old 11-13-2007, 12:46 PM
Terkman Terkman is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

Krantz: How often do you push turn here with ace high flush and how often do you push turn with this hand?
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  #74  
Old 11-13-2007, 12:50 PM
insyder19 insyder19 is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

How about shoving the turn?
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  #75  
Old 11-13-2007, 01:19 PM
lambdb lambdb is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

I think he knows where you are at in this hand and you gotta fold.

After the b/c flop and call turn, he has you to give you credit for a piece of that board.(or maybe not? - this is dependant on your play I guess)

If he plays reckless at paired boards I think the 45k river bet is the only valuable piece of info you have.

fold
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  #76  
Old 11-13-2007, 03:37 PM
marrek marrek is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

****disclaimer* I am not a HSNL player****

Doesn't the meat of this hand occur on the turn, specifically when you call his pot size bet? Everything up to and including his turn bet is pretty standard between you 2, no?

And from your description, he expects you to fold on the turn a good percentage of the time.

So, when you call his turn bet, doesn't that say you have a pretty big hand? You'd probably raise 2 pair, or a huge draw somewhere in the hand ( from your description again). Any mediocre hand has to protect itself on the turn in what is turning out to be a big pot on a draw-heavy board. You've pushed top pair/2pair type hands in the past, and you're not drawing in this spot.

So, he knows you have a hand, and overbets the river! I think he's full and is representing a bluff. He could have over-bet the turn (with a 6)expecting you to fold most of the time, but gets more $ in when you do call. Now that he has the best hand, he over-bets again, selling the bluff, and getting even more $$ in.

mark
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  #77  
Old 11-13-2007, 03:43 PM
cowpig cowpig is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
obviously calling, and while that's a bad result in a vacuum, it has some pretty solid benefits:


[/ QUOTE ]

Against what range could it possibly be correct to get in 200bbs w/ a gutter and 8 high flush draw here, on a paired board? Getting in your stack here would be real bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.301% 58.92% 00.38% 48997 318.00 { JJ-99, 66, 44, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac7c, A6s, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, T6s, 9c7c, 96s, 86s, 64s+, A6o, 86o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 1: 40.699% 40.32% 00.38% 33527 318.00 { 8c5c }

not that bad, and I don't know if he's 4betting all these hands, considering he's not going to put us on a draw, and obviously doesn't expect us to fold anything we're raising for value. The hands that he is least likely to shove are the ones that are especially bad for us:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.717% 68.99% 02.73% 683 27.00 { 9c7c }
Hand 1: 28.283% 25.56% 02.73% 253 27.00 { 8c5c }

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a) we get a good idea of the kinds of hands he's willing to stack off with on this flop, and he's going to respond to flop 3bets

[/ QUOTE ]

No, we really don't. We get an idea of 1 hand he will 4bet shove w/ on 466...


[/ QUOTE ]

If he calls, it's great for us, and we can probably get to showdown in those cases. And I think having an idea of how light he wants to stack off for 200bbs on this kind of flop is worth more than you are giving it credit for.


Anyway, 3betting is clearly not the best play, but I think it's a pretty interesting idea

edit: also, if we make a very small, even min-3bet, I think it puts a similar amount of pressure on him, increases the chance he calls, and makes it tougher for him to 4-bet shove
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  #78  
Old 11-13-2007, 03:53 PM
scallop scallop is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

Yeah I dont play HSNL...

How does Krantz play a 6? Does he 4-bet the flop. How does he play a 4? Could he concievably get to the river with a four like this? (Or do you fold the flop with a 4 here? - For example if you had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] could you get to the river like this ?)

Sorry if they were totally unnecessary questions.

The point I am driving at is that the texture of the board is so co-ordinated that for PA to bluff here profitablly doesnt he need to be fairly sure that when he does go to showdown he wins? Seems like Krant'z hand is fairly well defined by the river as being flush/boat/overpair?

Couldnt PA simply be valubetting 6x/T6/TT or even a four? LIke I get that there is alot of "if I know that he knows that I know" crap going on, so when that's the case isnt the best play to just assume that your flush is at the bottom of PA's river betting range and fold?
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  #79  
Old 11-13-2007, 04:31 PM
curious123 curious123 is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

[ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.301% 58.92% 00.38% 48997 318.00 { JJ-99, 66, 44, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac7c, A6s, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, T6s, 9c7c, 96s, 86s, 64s+, A6o, 86o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 1: 40.699% 40.32% 00.38% 33527 318.00 { 8c5c }

not that bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

That looks way off, we should only have like 1/3 of the pot here.
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  #80  
Old 11-13-2007, 04:50 PM
durrrr durrrr is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.301% 58.92% 00.38% 48997 318.00 { JJ-99, 66, 44, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac7c, A6s, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, T6s, 9c7c, 96s, 86s, 64s+, A6o, 86o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 1: 40.699% 40.32% 00.38% 33527 318.00 { 8c5c }

not that bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

That looks way off, we should only have like 1/3 of the pot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

eq is way lower... dont forget that some of those combos play differently sometimes etc etc. I like ur line and i puke/flip a coin on river jay...
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