this one time i flopped a combo draw

[HustlerLA]

live LA casino 5/5NL 500 effective stacks. SB is a station pre but folds on missed flops, BB just sat prob not getting out of line.
folded around to hero on button with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero raises to 20, SB and BB call.
Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB c, BB c, hero cbet 45. SB folds, BB raises to 140. Villain has another 200 behind. I am approx. 85% sure he has better than 1 pair, possibly AQ. Can I fold this? What is more +EV, assuming he calls my push with AQ, AJ,and sets. A fold or push?

[zmigsthatkid]

if ur read is that he has better than 1 pair all the time then my guess is that a fold is ok (i cant do the math sorry), altho i would always show this hand down to help my image since it is such a marginal spot

[HustlerLA]

i kinda felt the same way and think it is close either fold or push, my guess is push is slightly more ev and good image producer, downside is a bit of variance...

anyone fold this? i mean this was a gross spot with stack sizes, getting the flop we hoped for

[zmigsthatkid]

a push is the only option if you play the hand my guess is it might be be slightly -ev but i dont really know like i said earlier just a hunch, however the numbers work out in this marginal spot i think shoving and and flipping your cards over and yelling dealer 1 time is certainly +ev longterm at the table because casino players' heads explode when they see people get it in like this

[rand]

he doesnt have AA, maybe JJ but eh to that...and you have a 4, which leaves AJ or you are ahead

given this analysis + the dead money i shove...its not bad either way and when im kinda impartial EV wise i go aggressive

[HustlerLA]

[ QUOTE ]
a push is the only option if you play the hand my guess is it might be be slightly -ev but i dont really know like i said earlier just a hunch, however the numbers work out in this marginal spot i think shoving and and flipping your cards over and yelling dealer 1 time is certainly +ev longterm at the table because casino players' heads explode when they see people get it in like this

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed, the guy seemed kinda of shocked that I went allin on "just a draw" (sorry Norman Chad). He had AJ which everyone has agreed was the most likely. I had decent equity (40%) and didnt really consider the image thing at the time but do agree it did pay off for me later on in the session.

[jacklester]

If your not getting it all in here you have to ask yourself why you are playing the hand to start with , as this is just the flop you wanted
Just shove it

[ycjason]

why wouldn't you just call if you think he's got 2 pair or better. Seems to me a push here has no FE if he's really got 2 pair or better. and by calling, you have position and great implied odds to get the rest of his $$ if you hit (I assume 2 pair or better is not going to fold even if flush hits on turn/river)

[HustlerLA]

normally, I would agree but against this player, and with these stack sizes, i.e. zero FE, with very poor pot odds. the situation isnt as good as it looks.

[jacklester]

Problem I see with the call is
1/ Are you getting paid off if you hit
2/ What are you doing if the turn blanks
Shoving eliminates these problems and as said before this is really the type of flop you wanted so if its me im getting it in