NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?

[AlexB182]

Villain is pretty loose and post flop pretty much a calling station, running 43/19/0.8 over about a 100 hands. His PF raises are minraises mostly though.
I'm running at 18/11 at this table.
Is this value bet on the river ok? The Q is a little scary but he did not show any strenght so far so I can't give him credit for that, right?
Comments very welcome...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $70.85
BB: $67.95
Hero (UTG): $48.20
UTG+1: $57.05
MP1: $33.50
MP2: $51.35
CO: $94.25
BTN: $94.80

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero calls $0.50, 4 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: ($1.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, BTN calls $1.50, BB folds

Turn: ($4.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($4.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>

[Brimstead]

what do you hope he will call with?

[AllTheCheese]

I guess he's hoping for calls by 34, A5, junk like that. This is about as razor thin as you can get IMO (i.e. I wouldn't) but you would know better than me. What else has he shown down?

[ship_it_trebek]

I wouldn't be surprised if a Q9 kind of hand looks you up. There aren't really any tangible draws on the flop and with that AF its possible that he will not bet his Q on any street.

[AlexB182]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess he's hoping for calls by 34, A5, junk like that. This is about as razor thin as you can get IMO (i.e. I wouldn't) but you would know better than me. What else has he shown down?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty exactly what I hope for, like every flush draw with third or fourth pair. We have to remember that he really is a calling station, that's exactly why I make this (I admit pretty thin) value bet here.
And he really showed down a lot of strange hands so far like As8s when board was 8 T Qs 2s K and he paid off KQ on the river...

Anyway would like to hear some more opinions, I'll post results later if there is interest...

[threads13]

Actually, I think he probably would have bet a Q or maybe even a pair of 5's or 7's on the river. I think that he plays JJ-88/66/33 this way about 50% of the time collectively.

I think you can bet it. You are going to get called by 22 and A-high often enough, imo.

[GiantBuddha]

There was no flush draw on the flop, so 43 is the only draw which could have paired. If he might calldown with some ridiculous A-high hand, I like it.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he probably would have bet a Q or maybe even a pair of 5's or 7's on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is button, we don't know his river action yet.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
There was no flush draw on the flop, so 43 is the only draw which could have paired. If he might calldown with some ridiculous A-high hand, I like it.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he probably would have bet a Q or maybe even a pair of 5's or 7's on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is button, we don't know his river action yet.

[/ QUOTE ]


Meh, sure we do... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Johnes Benjamin]

meh, i guess bet. i would usually opt for a check/call but it doesn't seem like he will bluff us very often. It just sucks b/c even though I doubt he is folding a pair we beat, there are just so few hands he could have that we beat with which he could reasonably call.

If you really think he looks you up with A high then I like it.

[BalancePoint]

I;d check it still