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#22
07-18-2006, 07:43 PM
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Re: what to do on the river when you are raised
[ QUOTE ]
its cool [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but i dont like it when ppl post without reaidng replies [/ QUOTE ] its far better as it helps curb some of the group think. 
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#23
07-18-2006, 07:45 PM
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Re: what to do on the river when you are raised
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] its cool [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but i dont like it when ppl post without reaidng replies [/ QUOTE ] its far better as it helps curb some of the group think. [/ QUOTE ] Youshould think up your answer, and then read to see if its been posted 20 times already before writing it up.
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#24
07-18-2006, 07:47 PM
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Re: what to do on the river when you are raised
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] its cool [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but i dont like it when ppl post without reaidng replies [/ QUOTE ] its far better as it helps curb some of the group think. [/ QUOTE ] Youshould think up your answer, and then read to see if its been posted 20 times already before writing it up. [/ QUOTE ]
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#26
07-18-2006, 08:39 PM
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Re: what to do on the river when you are raised
First off, I think something's up with your converter since there's some info missing here and there. Anyway...
Preflop: I would rather just call here. Since SB called the pot will likely be too big to muscle everyone out on the flop, and I don't think this hand is strong enough to raise for value. Flop: Standard Turn: Standard River: I would call here. With 3 diamonds out I don't think most opponents are raising without a very strong hand here. He might have something like K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Qx here or maybe K9, which I think is enough of a possibiilty to make folding not an option. However, the possibility of him holding QJ, 8x, or possibly even a flush makes a 3bet way too aggressive. Just my opinion...
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#27
07-18-2006, 09:06 PM
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Re: what to do on the river when you are raised
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] its cool [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but i dont like it when ppl post without reaidng replies [/ QUOTE ] its far better as it helps curb some of the group think. [/ QUOTE ] Youshould think up your answer, and then read to see if its been posted 20 times already before writing it up. [/ QUOTE ] yeah, but im egocentric and I want my voice to be heard. So even if I read it posted 20 times already id still post it. or maybe im just really lazy and if I have to think of a post AND read all the replies before posting it, id be so tired I wouldnt have the energy to type out the post I thought up. you choose hint: <font color="white"> its both : ) </font>
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#28
07-18-2006, 09:16 PM
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Re: what to do on the river when you are raised
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] its cool [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but i dont like it when ppl post without reaidng replies [/ QUOTE ] its far better as it helps curb some of the group think. [/ QUOTE ] Youshould think up your answer, and then read to see if its been posted 20 times already before writing it up. [/ QUOTE ] yeah, but im egocentric and I want my voice to be heard. So even if I read it posted 20 times already id still post it. or maybe im just really lazy and if I have to think of a post AND read all the replies before posting it, id be so tired I wouldnt have the energy to type out the post I thought up. you choose hint: <font color="white"> its both : ) </font> [/ QUOTE ] futher, when an truplaya like alobar posts, i, for one, hold it in higher esteem.
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#29
07-19-2006, 04:36 PM
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Re: what to do on the river when you are raised
I did some math based upon some assumptions of what I thought his most likely hands would be. My assumptions (and/or my math) could be all wrong though. I also assume he'll never fold a better hand.
a) 55% he has another 8 and we split the pot b) 10% he has a flush c) 10% he has J8 for a better straight d) 25% he has a hand we can beat a) our EV is 0 if we raise b) our EV is -2 if we raise c) our EV is -1.2 if we raise (assuming he often doesn't cap fearing we have a flush) d) our EV is .8 (he won't always call our raise) So I get raising has an EV of 55%*0 + 10%*-2 + 10%*-1.2 + 25%*.8 = -.12 BB Do my assumptions seem reasonable? Did I do the math correctly? If so, raising here is -EV. If not, where do you think I'm off base?
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#30
07-19-2006, 07:42 PM
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Re: what to do on the river when you are raised
your percentages are off IMO. He has J8 here almsot never and he doesnt have the other 8 55% (its much lower IMO).
The first time I read this I completely missed QJ, I guess a lot of how likely it is depends on how he plays it post flop, and thats pretty read based. I dont think a 3 bet is certain as I did before
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