25/50, bluffing with an overpair vs prev

[Squareview]

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sorry thats a little harsh but this is really really bad.

you realize you probably have the best hand here like 75% of the time?

in order for this bet to be good, he would have to fold a BETTER hand over 75% of the time. so you win the pot outright still when he has overs, but when he has a better hand you need him to fold those over 75%.

thats almost impossible if he played AA KK QQ this way to control the pot, hes not going to fold to a bet once it comes. hes accomplished his goal of controlling pot and inducing a bluff.

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daut, great minds think alike and you are now one of my fav. players. deff a fan boi and gl to u sir.

[EmpireMaker2]

This is so bad vs pre.....Ive seriously tried to do the same thing against him and never seen him fold an overpair to my strong bets when im trying to bluff him off it.

[ActionJeff]

I think Daut the tourney donk nits analysis is spot on [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I agree with bruiser about considering overbetting if ur gonna bet here, but I think a check is way better.

[LimitGod]

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EV of checking is probably ~$1500ish and I have a hard time believing that the EV of betting is higher then that.

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this is trully funny .. LOL. how can you figure out +ev for a check on that line w 10/10 but cant figure out EV with a bet...but it must be higher.. plz dont put in your 2 cents again. this post is way over your head sir.

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This makes me LOL if you don't know who he is and makes me rofl if you know who he is.

[hasugopher]

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EV of checking is probably ~$1500ish and I have a hard time believing that the EV of betting is higher then that.

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this is trully funny .. LOL. how can you figure out +ev for a check on that line w 10/10 but cant figure out EV with a bet...but it must be higher.. plz dont put in your 2 cents again. this post is way over your head sir.

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uhh, I said the EV of checking is $1500 which seems reasonable but probably a bit low. I have a hard time putting villain on a reasonable range that makes this near near pot-sized bet have a higher EV then just checking back (ignoring metagame). If you disagree then please post something constructive instead of this garbage that is written above.

[Prevaricator]

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This is so bad vs pre.....Ive seriously tried to do the same thing against him and never seen him fold an overpair to my strong bets when im trying to bluff him off it.

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ive folded them, but you only see the times when i look you up... hehe.

in this hand, as it was, i had gp beat but couldn't see him value betting a worse pair, or bluffing as in this case with a hand with showdown value. i was also stuck a lot and i think gp knew that (although looks like i could be wrong) and thought that would factor into his decision to bluff me or not. in general i think, and most will agree, that bluffing the guy who is stuck is a bad idea. also when ive looked gp up before in the past hes had it so i had that to go by as well.

daut's analysis is pretty good, i wouldn't have thought about it mathematically like that.

[pocketjesuits]

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in case you were wondering, the way i got the 75% is the following:

75% is a pretty good estimate for how often youre good here. shorthanded, aggro game
if you check the EV is roughly 2300. (.75*3100)
if you bet, you are folding out the worse hands always. so we assumed he has a better hand .75. you win outright .25*3100, or about 775. thus we need the EV of him with a better hand to be 2300-775=1525.

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This math is seriously messed up. I would think it should be very intuitive that you only need to fold out a better hand 1/2 the time for a PSB to work as a bluff.


You don't have to worry about the times when you have the best hand. If he has a worse hand the EV of checking and betting is the exact same here (if we assume he always folds).

All you have to worry about is the times he has a better hand. It is irrelevant how often that is. When he has a better hand, you are risking $3050 to win $3150. So he only needs fold a better hand 50% of the time for this move to be correct.

To put it another way, when he (a) folds incorrectly he is handing you $3100. When he (b) calls correctly you are handing him $3100. All that matters is that (a) is greater than (b).


If you insist on using your equation, for checking we have (making it a $3100 PSB for simplicity):

EV = 3100*0.75 = 2325

For betting we have, where X is the likelihood of him folding the best hand:

EV = 3100*0.75 + X*0.25*3100 - (1-X)*0.25*3100
= X*1550 + 1550

So for this to have greater EV we need

1550*X + 1550 > 2325
X > 0.5


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thus, since youre basically risking the potsize to win (to make things easy), when he calls you lose that potsize and when he folds you win that potsize. since the EV needed is half the potsize, you need the percentage difference between the two to be half, which means you need him to fold 75% of the time to make this good.

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This is one of the least coherent things I have seen posted in a while.

I'm trying to figure out if you made a math error and then tried to justify it, or whether your entire thought process was messed up, leading to the mathematical justification.

[pocketjesuits]

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daut's analysis is pretty bad

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Not only is the math incoherent, but this is actually a very nice bet in alot of situations, and he calls it "one of the worst things ive ever seen".

I wouldn't make this bet very often because of my image, but for a tighter player this is a great bet to have in your arsenal.

If the villain has JJ-AA, he has to be asking what hand calls the flop, checks the turn, and then bets the river? Just about every hand that he beats he would expect to check behind. The only hands he beats are strange floats that picked up a diamond draw and decided to check turn behind, and made hands that are turned into bluffs (which few people expect).

This is one of those spots that is so rarely a bluff that it's good to bluff here occasionally. Seriously, Hero has at least KK 85% of the time here, with most likely holdings of 44/66/AAd. If your opponent can recognize this and fold JJ-AA, then this is obviously a good spot.

Even if the bluff isn't quite +EV on its own, the metagame value of having your regular opponents know that you can turn showdown hands into bluffs at any time is of great value.


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thats almost impossible if he played AA KK QQ this way to control the pot, hes not going to fold to a bet once it comes. hes accomplished his goal of controlling pot and inducing a bluff.

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What?

Just because he was trying to control the pot he has to call? Even though no hand he beats really makes sense for the villain here?

[RaSZi]

I'd Much rather make a 2200ish turn bet here and check behind on the river.. and with a potbet on the river he is only gonna call with JJ-AA

turn as played is 100% check river

ps If u check turn behind i also don't think villain will fold any pair bigger than yours ever.

[mperich]

not as bad as some are making it out to be. im also in the overbet camp. 3700

-Mike