2/4 - real thin river push

[JrJordan]

Villain is Poly_Baller a very solid pseudo-LAG who's a regular in this game. We've played together plenty but not recently since I've taken some time off. My image is fairly solid at the table and I've 3bet him a few times preflop which he hasn't called yet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($380)
Button ($304.45)
SB ($323.90)
BB ($52)
UTG ($527)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $36.

Flop: ($106) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $65</font>, UTG calls $65.

Turn: ($236) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($236) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $265...</font>

I'm basically hoping for a hero call after the scare card hits and I checked through the turn. I'd normally check through but it seems like his entire range that beats me would bet this river. My stack size isn't really great for a checkraise and the only hand beating me that might check/call instead of bet is JT (and even that probably bets the river after I check through).

Like it or am I just being a variance monkey?

[GLmaestro]

I prefer pushing turn, i think he calls a lot lighter than on the river

[JrJordan]

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer pushing turn, i think he calls a lot lighter than on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

I like my turn check. If he has a set/JT I can avoid getting stacked on this fairly dry board and I'm only getting one round of hero calls from underpairs anyway (or a river bluff trying to fold a higher underpair).

[ipokeder]

bet

the turn

if he has JT or a set then lol

overbetting the river is beyond retarded and is much closer to a bluff than a value bet

edit: oh it's a shove. it's still retarded tho, bet the turn.

[DanielDayLewis]

bet the turn.

[GLmaestro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I prefer pushing turn, i think he calls a lot lighter than on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

I like my turn check. If he has a set/JT I can avoid getting stacked on this fairly dry board and I'm only getting one round of hero calls from underpairs anyway (or a river bluff trying to fold a higher underpair).

[/ QUOTE ]


i dont know about your image, but i can def push this turn and get called by underpairs/Tx (also, this is 5 handed right?)

i know he's utg and has a tighter range (perhaps making villain think you're more unlikely to double barrel bluff him) but still the J is a better card for you to "bluffshove" on than a blank