200 NL - 8Ts turn play

[dregal]

Villian is a TAG regular who I have at 22/16/2.5 over 1400 datamined hands. I just sat so we have no history thus far

My main question is on the turn play. Talked about this a bunch with another 2p2er and we cant decide on the best line.

*Flop bet is usually around 12-13 - not sure why it was so light here*


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $96.25
BB: $221.80
UTG: $679.85
MP: $58.90
Hero (CO): $209.25
BTN: $621.95

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, BTN calls $7.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10.00</font>, BTN calls $10.00

Turn: ($37) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero does what?

[Hoopster81]

$32

can also be a decent c/r spot against habitual floaters

[barryc83]

Well youve played 1400 hands with him, and hes not a nit so Id assume his calling range is kinda wide pf here (just an assumption, you know better than me). If he will float you and can fold top pair, I like a c/r here. I mean I dont know for sure but hes probably 3betting AQ and even AJ sometimes. Would he stack off with AJ here you think? With no history Id fold AJ to the turn c/r. I just think turn c/r works more often than double barrel because he should really only be calling it with 44 or maybe if he called pf with A4s/A9s. It looks scarier than double barrel.

[dregal]

[ QUOTE ]
Well youve played 1400 hands with him, and hes not a nit so Id assume his calling range is kinda wide pf here (just an assumption, you know better than me).

[/ QUOTE ]

They are almost all mined hands, so uunfortunately I have no read (yay!) Just another chow/meow TAG

As for the c/r suggestion...is this a flop he is likely to float? Should he look at this board as one that likely hit my pfr and cbetting range?

Is he betting AJ/KQ etc on the turn as opposed to checking behind for pot control?

(not necesarily discount c/r - just offering some food for discussion)

[ajmargarine]

Given the flop texture, he almost always has a made hand on the flop. However, your weakish flop bet might widen his range just a little bit. Does he really call a flop bet there with 77?

Anyhow, because he's likely made I like a c/c. You don't get blown out of the water when he has 444. Also, you have little FE with a bet if he's made. And, with a dry flop, he might check behind to get to showdown with the bottom of his range, Kx A-rag.

[ajmargarine]

Agree with Barry as well btw. If you have a feel for the guy at all, a c/r should like AK or better to him.

[barryc83]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well youve played 1400 hands with him, and hes not a nit so Id assume his calling range is kinda wide pf here (just an assumption, you know better than me).

[/ QUOTE ]

They are almost all mined hands, so uunfortunately I have no read (yay!) Just another chow/meow TAG

As for the c/r suggestion...is this a flop he is likely to float? Should he look at this board as one that likely hit my pfr and cbetting range?

Is he betting AJ/KQ etc on the turn as opposed to checking behind for pot control?

(not necesarily discount c/r - just offering some food for discussion)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah sorry I shouldve read the OP more closely. I seem to get floated a lot in this spot against guys with taggier stats lately. I wouldnt bet Kx there but I would bet AJ for sure on the turn, no point in giving a free card to a gutter or whatever. Im just saying that I know I will float here with air, QJ, and JT a good bit bc hell fold on the turn w/o an A.

I guess the benefits of a double barrel is that he folds Kx, but I think he calls with Ax a decent bit. He should be folding everything except A9,A4, and 44 to the turn c/r though and youre making money from his floats. I guess he could felt you with QJdd or JTdd too but those are only 2 specific hands.

Also if the turn checks through, you can make a sick c/r bluff on the river sometimes.

[Jamougha]

Just bet the turn and fold out KQ/KJ/QJ/JT/QT/air. Then bet the river if he can fold tp.

[orange]

[ QUOTE ]
Just bet the turn and fold out KQ/KJ/QJ/JT/QT/air. Then bet the river if he can fold tp.

[/ QUOTE ]
agree. if he can fold like AJ then bet turn shove river.

[dregal]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just bet the turn and fold out KQ/KJ/QJ/JT/QT/air. Then bet the river if he can fold tp.

[/ QUOTE ]
agree. if he can fold like AJ then bet turn shove river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I kinda like this line the more I think about it. I did end up betting the turn, but I dont think I would have 3 barreled the river (lol nit [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

Anywho, here are results (I guess my turn bet is a bit light - meh). I drove stright into valuetown. I guess he put me on AK lol.


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $96.25
BB: $221.80
UTG: $679.85
MP: $58.90
Hero (CO): $209.25
BTN: $621.95

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, BTN calls $7.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10.00</font>, BTN calls $10.00

Turn: ($37) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $24.00</font>, BTN calls $24.00

River: ($85) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $68.00</font>, BTN calls $68.00

Pot Size: $221.00 ($3 Rake)

BTN had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON (+$109.00)
Hero had 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ([8d Td] a flush, King high) and LOST (-$109.00)