NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair

[Aquadougs]

Villain: 10,5/6/2 (86)


Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $27.37
BB: $50
Hero (UTG): $72.35
CO: $49.75
BTN: $78.35

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $70.35 and is All-In</font>


If this is his c/r range: JJ+ and sets
And this is his "call the push" range: KK+ and sets

Then the EV of pushing is +$1,95

Is that too much variance?
Is my handreading too pessimistic?

[Aquadougs]

Forgot that he may not call in the blinds with AA-KK, so then the EV is negative, because he have more % set-combinations.

[NeverScurred]

Well you were at the table and therefore know the player better than I do, but you don't think he'd c/r combo draws like QJs, AdJd+? And you think he's folding an overpair to your shove? A lot of tight preflop players have a tendency to get married to their hand postflop, so I don't think you should immediately assume he's folding JJ and QQ to your shove.

I would play the hand the same way you did, though.

[mdwexford]

He'll have combo draws here a ton as well

[Paul Thomson]

i'd never fold. if villlain plays AXs preflop then i'm happy getting it in on the flop. and if u think QQ and JJ are in his range then pushing flop is probably good. and the board is somewhat drawy outside of hte flush draw...

but i wouldn't hate calling. and pushing over safe turn cards.

[derosnec]

bombs away. you're ahead of all but a set and he can have QQ/JJ here. flop c/rs don't bother me much, esp on drawy flops, because u'll see alot of worse hands. turn c/r's however are a different ball game.

[Aquadougs]

I changed his ranges a bit:
__________________________________________________ ______
His c/r line is 100% consistent with: TT, 88, 44, JJ, QQ and AKs-AQs flushdraws.

And 30% consistent with: KK

He calls with KK and sets but not his draws (not good enough pot odds)
__________________________________________________ _______

EV = -$1,53

If i put in QQ in his callingrange, then the EV is: +$3,55

You now him just as much as I do. Havent seen anything special from him. But he is tight, so i dont think he calls oop with worse than AQs or any pair (am I right?).

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
I changed his ranges a bit:
__________________________________________________ ______
His c/r line is 100% consistent with: TT, 88, 44, JJ, QQ and AKs-AQs flushdraws.

And 30% consistent with: KK

He calls with KK and sets but not his draws (not good enough pot odds)
__________________________________________________ _______

EV = -$1,53

If i put in QQ in his callingrange, then the EV is: +$3,55

You now him just as much as I do. Havent seen anything special from him. But he is tight, so i dont think he calls oop with worse than AQs or any pair (am I right?).

[/ QUOTE ]

i think ur math is wrong.

[Aquadougs]

Ok, I can test the calculation:


How many combinations do he hold?
KK............2
QQ............6
JJ............6
TT............3
88............3
44............3
AKs-FD............1
AQs-FD............1
=25


How many combinations do he fold if i push?

JJ............6
TT............3
AKs-FD............1
AQs-FD............1
=11


How often do he fold?

11/25 = 44% of the time


What does i win if he folds?

Pot+Bet+Raise = 16,25


What is the fold EV?

$16,25*44% = 7,15


What is my Equity if he calls?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.114% 46.11% 00.00% 7761 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 53.886% 53.89% 00.00% 9069 0.00 { KcKd, KcKh, QQ, TT, 88, 44 }


What do I win if he calls?

My cbet + pot + his stack = 55,25


The EV call(win)?

(1-Fold%)*55,25*0,46 = 0,56*55,25*0,46 = 14


What do i loose if he calls?

His stack - my cbet = 45


The EV call(loose)?

(1-Fold%)*45*0,54 = 0,56*45*0,54 = -13


Total EV:

EV Fold + EV Call(win) + EV Call(loose) = 7,15 + 14 - 13 = +8,15


It was close. I understand what the difference was now. I used the % number at the hold'em distribution window at pokerstove instead of counting combinations.

[Aquadougs]

And as I have experienced, this post killed the action at this topic...