equity must call?

[wazz]

[ QUOTE ]
Its an easy call for me.

cant be bothered with the math,
its obviously close,

but it could be a huge error to fold
but it will only ever be a tiny error to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

eggzactly. nailed it in one

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
i know villan makes straight on turn. my instinct says the numbers are really close. call or fold? what does stove say?

[/ QUOTE ] sqwisssssss -I don't know what "stove" is.

$18.25*3 + $37.40 = $92.15

That's what's in the pot.

It costs you $37.40 to call.

Therefore you're getting
92.15/37.40 = 2.46/1 or 2.46 to 1 to call.

Meanwhile, since you have one of your own outs for the board pairing, there are only 9 river cards that can make you quads or a full house (J,T,T,2,2,2,9,9,9).

If Villain does have the straight, he either has KQYZ, Q8YZ, or 87YZ. In any of these cases he has two of your bricks and none of your outs. Thus if Villain does have the straight, there are
44-9-2=33 bricks (cards that don't make you a full house or quads). Therefore the odds against you making a full house or quads are 33 to 9 or 33/9 = 3.67/1.

In other words, the odds against you making a full house or quads (I call them "hand odds") are 3.67 to 1 (against).

Since the odds against you making your full house or quads are substantially greater than the pot odds you are getting, and since you have no implied pot odds here because Villain is all-in, we say you have "unfavorable odds" to draw for the board to pair. Another way of saying what amounts to the same thing is saying you have an unfavorable e.v. or a negative e.v.

However, there's another important consideration:
Villain goes all-in, thus taking away your implied pot odds in case you are drawing, and thus making a draw less favorable.
This is a situation where it is not uncommon for Villain to be bluffing.

And now you have to decide if Villain is bluffing or not.

You don't have favorable odds to draw if there is no chance Villain is bluffing.

But if Villain would bluff here more than about one fourth then you should call.
Here's my algebraic formulation for the one fourth:[list]
(-33/42*37.40+9/42*92.15)(1-B)+92.15B =0.
Solve for B, the bluffing break even
point. B=0.242, if I did the math right.

So is Villain going to bluff here at least one time out of four? If so, it behooves you to call. If not, fold.

You have to decide.

Buzz

[sqwisssssss]

buzz, thank you for the response.

buzz, have you considered my equity? i believe i made a huge mistake here by not snap calling. i meant to call but my time ran out as soon as i pushed "click".

i'm pretty sure you lose less money in the long run by calling. thats why i asked if someone would stove it. poker stove is an equity calculator i believe.

buzz, you can throw this thread in the trash any time you feel like. see you at 5k bud.

[ChuckyB]

Pro Poker Tools -- essentially the same as Poker Stove

On the turn J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]:

T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 19.85%
AKQ9 80.15%

T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 21.16%
KQxx 78.84%

T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 19.43%
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]QT4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 80.57%

T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 30.43%
87xx 69.57%

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
buzz, have you considered my equity?

[/ QUOTE ]Hi sqwisssssss - Assuming I did the math correctly, I believe I did better than that.

I assumed Villain either has a straight or is bluffing. But with JT9 on the flop, which straight??? Could be king high, queen high, or jack high.

I circumvented that dilemma by assuming that if Villain has a straight, then you need the board to pair on the river in order to win.

However, that's not exactly true, because Villain could only have a jack high straight, and in that case a seven on the river will also give you a jack high straight, which might tie if Villain only has a jack high straight. (The 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] adds a possible flush complication).

But in any event, the probability of a seven on the river along with Villain only having a jack high straight is relatively remote and is trivial compared to the possibility of Villain bluffing.

I think often when some individuals get down to their last chips, they tend to take a flier at the pot. Even otherwise solid players can push all-in when they are down. (I guess that qualifies as "steaming").

At any rate, I figured the possibility the board would pair (9/42 if Villain has any version of the straight), and the possibility the board would not pair (33/42). And I figured how much money Hero would win if the board paired and how much he’d lose if it didn’t. And then if the probability Villain is bluffing is B, the probability Villain is not bluffing is 1-B.

And then I wrote an equation to solve for the percentage of the time Villain would have to be bluffing (or betting stupidly) in order for it to be proper for Hero to call. I rather doubt that anyone else wrote that equation, although there are those who post here who are capable of writing it. In writing the equation, I considered the amount in the pot and by using 9/42 and 33/42, considered Hero’s equity if Villain actually has a straight.

[ QUOTE ]
i believe i made a huge mistake here by not snap calling. i meant to call but my time ran out as soon as i pushed "click".

[/ QUOTE ]Not necessarily. It’s a tough decision, if you take the time and have the mental capability to think about it. And if Villain would never bluff here, you made the correct decision.

Buzz

[sqwisssssss]

buzz, there is no doubt in my mind he had nut straight. me and this player had history up to that point. there is no way he was just going to hand over his chips with a false move. he knows that my pot bet on flop means i'm going all the way. he never showed an inclination of giving away chips in previous hands. he was playing rather snug.

he knew i was going all the way with my hand.........but i didnt........i did, but i timed out. its been a rough week for me and it probably affected my quick decision making. it should be an instant call but ive been running cold, they have all been running hot and i had to think about wether i wanted to hand over my chips to this guy behind in the hand. WRONG THOUGHT PROCESS.

the call is a loser in the long run but i am positive i lose less money in the long run by calling off. i was also ahead in my overall session and thats why i timed out before doing the right thing. i thought to myself, "hmmmmm, watch football with a profit or screw it, i have to call. click, damn time button!!!"

stupid thought process......but it happens sometimes.

[Elrazor]

there are some uber nits i could fold this too but not many - if you have history with Villan you need to consider what kind of history - are you a nit? lag?? what range does he put you on etc??

there are good players i play with regularly who i would play lower sets and NFD's this way against as they would give me too much credit, but others i would never be doing this with as they wouldnt understand they didnt have the odds to call

[RoundTower]

buzz -
I think the amount villain has to be bluffing is more than the 1 in 4 you have him on, because a lot of the hands he would call to "bluff" with now are actually semi bluffs and have heart outs.

swigss -
you can't really make beginner posts like this and then expect us to believe you are a solid winner in the games. If you struggle with the maths of spots like this you have huge leaks. It's OK to swallow your pride, have a little humility, make more of an effort in your questions and act like less of a jackass.

[pete fabrizio]

i call because calling is more fun.