Hedging Help Needed

[Iplayragstoo]

I made the below parlay, and now have one open play on it. The bulls game to go over 181.5. Now my question is this. If I hedge, and I am not sure I am going too, is when to do it. I can do it pregame as I think the line is going to creep up to 183. Or i can hope for a high scoring 1st half like in the first game, and then hedge the under in the second half for a potential middle. Thats actually the way i am leaning right now. Any thoughts or suggestions are welcome.





05/06/2007 06:41:45 6 Play Parlay: Wagered $50.00 to win $1726.60 Unsettled
B 53 5/6 SAN ANTONIO AT PHOENIX OVER 200.5 (W)
B101 5/7 CHICAGO AT DETROIT OVER 181.5
BA 69 5/6 CLEVELAND: C SABATHIA AT BALTIMORE:B BURRES CLEVELAND: C SABATHIA (-153) (W)
BA 75 5/6 BOSTON: SCHILLING AT MINNESOTA: S PONSON BOSTON: SCHILLING (-167) (W)
BA 79 5/6 CHICAGO A: M BUEHRLE AT LOS ANGELES A: B COLON CHICAGO A: M BUEHRLE (+123) (W)
BN 53 5/6 SAN DIEGO: J PEAVY AT FLORIDA: S OLSEN SAN DIEGO: J PEAVY (-153) (W)

[brendanb438]

If Detroit runs away with this game again like they did in the 1st, it is gonna go under by 20+ points again. If you are gonna hedge I would do it now, I am seeing the line at 181 now at a few sites and wouldn't be surprised to see it actually go down, not sure why you think it will creep up.

-Brendan

[Iplayragstoo]

[ QUOTE ]
If Detroit runs away with this game again like they did in the 1st, it is gonna go under by 20+ points again. If you are gonna hedge I would do it now, I am seeing the line at 181 now at a few sites and wouldn't be surprised to see it actually go down, not sure why you think it will creep up.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]


I think it will creep up for several reasons. I believe the public truely likes to bet overs, I do not see the bulls shooting 32% again, no matter if they get blown out or not, no way both teams play as bad as they did in that 3rd quarter. In the first game, the line opened at 182, and was at 184 by game time - again showing the public over affair. And lastly because I think it will be an over. I had it in the first half and game in game one, and if not for that horrid 3rd quarter by both teams, it would have been very close. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[whipsaw]

Why on earth would you hedge after a high scoring first half?

[brendanb438]

Um the over in the first game opened at 182, moved to 181.5 and then 181 early that morning when I bet the over, and got pushed back up to 182.5 by gametime. Can check the line movement on multiple sites, it never reached 184 at any offshore books.

If you feel the public is what is going to move that line, then you would have to think that after that first game a bunch of squares are gonna think "oh shiat, this is gonna be soooo under again and Detroit is gonna stomp the Bulls."

You do know the public doesn't move these lines before gametime right? You are looking at big 5 and 6 figure bets/ groups of bets moving those before gametime.

-Brendan

[Iplayragstoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Why on earth would you hedge after a high scoring first half?

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you see the first game? That is the reason I am thinking about hedging. Here is a recap...BTW the total for the game was 183.5

Final 1 2 3 4 T
Chicago (4-1) 23 18 16 12 69
Detroit (5-0) « 29 25 16 25 95


95 pts in the first half, and 69 pts in the second.

[Iplayragstoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Um the over in the first game opened at 182, moved to 181.5 and then 181 early that morning when I bet the over, and got pushed back up to 182.5 by gametime. Can check the line movement on multiple sites, it never reached 184 at any offshore books.

If you feel the public is what is going to move that line, then you would have to think that after that first game a bunch of squares are gonna think "oh shiat, this is gonna be soooo under again and Detroit is gonna stomp the Bulls."

You do know the public doesn't move these lines before gametime right? You are looking at big 5 and 6 figure bets/ groups of bets moving those before gametime.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess your books are the only books out there...mine(WSEX) had it at 183.5 when I placed the wager, but I saw it at 184 a few minutes prior to that on the same book.

05/05/2007 18:54:43 3 Play Parlay: Wagered $10.00 to win $59.58 Lost Parlay Wager
B 7 5/5 UTAH AT HOUSTON HOUSTON -5.5 (L)
B 51 5/5 CHICAGO AT DETROIT CHICAGO +5.0 (L)
B 51 5/5 CHICAGO AT DETROIT OVER 183.5 (L)

[brendanb438]

Yes I saw the first game, and just like from the prior 4 games these 2 teams played during the regular season if the bulls stayed in it they went over, if they didn't it went way under.

I used Matchbook which is the sister site of WSEX and it never reached that high, checking line movement at covers and sbrlines it never showed it moving higher than 182.5 which I never saw it move higher than either. WSEX must have been getting hit hard on the over and moved outside of what other sites offered.

But anyway hedging is for pusssssiess per this forum. Let it ride.



Good luck on your parlay.


-Brendan

[Iplayragstoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes I saw the first game, and just like from the prior 4 games these 2 teams played during the regular season if the bulls stayed in it they went over, if they didn't it went way under.

I used Matchbook which is the sister site of WSEX and it never reached that high, checking line movement at covers and sbrlines it never showed it moving higher than 182.5 which I never saw it move higher than either. WSEX must have been getting hit hard on the over and moved outside of what other sites offered.

But anyway hedging is for pusssssiess per this forum. Let it ride.



Good luck on your parlay.


-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, as you can see, I made my play late in the day, and it was at 183.5. If there is a way to track line movement on sex I would love to see it, use it. For the record I am leaning on not hedging at all, its more rush/reward that way. As for it being for pussies, well, I guess that depends on the amount were talking about more then anything. As you can see its a rather nice amount for a rather small investment, and even locking up half that amount is about 17x my initial investment, and worth thinking about. I mean hell, 17 - 1 $$$ in hand is worth alot. Thats why I am thinking about it in the first place, and perhaps if they start out hot, I can get a middle.

[Iplayragstoo]

I DID NOT hedge the play. I have a second half line of 91.5 at even money. This gives me a 10 point window tothe good. I will be putting a small amount on the under in the second half. Thank you all for the imput!!!!!