Stop N Go late in WSOP satellite

[JC_Saves]

Top 50 advance on to next WSOP round. 160 left Average size stack. The PF raiser just lost 75% of his stack a few hands earlier when he called down with A3, pairing his A on a heavy straight draw board. I felt he could raise with any two cards in the CO so I flat called the 2800 more.

THere is 9000 in the pot and this flop was very good for me I thought. I had an open-end straight draw plus I still had a pair. I thought with my stack size which was about 2/3 of his remaining chips that I would have max fold equity on this draw heavy board.

Your thoughts on the play? you can see it at link below

http://www.pokerxfactor.com/servlet/pxf?...0420_102040.txt



Basically I have 88, and the flop comes JT9 two spades.

9050 in pot, my stack 22k, his stack 38k .

[rockin]

Don't like it. You are challenging someone that could easily be tilting and is not giving up with top pair, maybe not even 2nd pair. You also have the idiot end of the straight draw, so first you could be nearly drawing dead and second you may not have 4 outs you are counting on if villain has a K.

Let me add that this is a draw heavy board and villain has you covered. A ten is the most likely card in the entire deck to help the average hand. It is used in more straights than any other card (not to mention 2 broadway card hands for 2 pair etc...). A jack would be next and both are on the board.

I like the idea, but this is one of those flops where I willing to abandon.

[zizazziza]

Yeah I dont like this play against someone that is tilting. You are just asking to get called by top or middle pair here.

[reecelights]

I think I put the brakes on a stop and go here. I know ideally you make it no matter what, but that board is really scary.

What may be a better line in this situation is a check raise representing two pair or a set of 9s.

At the same time this is a very marginal call by Villain. He may be drawing to 3 outs for a win and 4 outs for a chop if you have QJ. But from his perspective, why would you shove here (betting double what is in the pot) first to act?

I like MLGs latest line of questioning:
What better hands fold?
What worse hands call? [AQ obviously]

[Skjonne]

I like it.

If he's tilting then great! Why are you guys afraid he's tilting? Opponent tilting = g00t

[rockin]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it.

If he's tilting then great! Why are you guys afraid he's tilting? Opponent tilting = g00t

[/ QUOTE ]

opponent tilting = must win showdown

[Skjonne]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like it.

If he's tilting then great! Why are you guys afraid he's tilting? Opponent tilting = g00t

[/ QUOTE ]

opponent tilting = must win showdown

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[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Opponent tilting = I get all-in as a 2:1 fav = g00t

Getting sucked out upon = g00t not

[reecelights]

Villain has him covered and we are not sure we are a 2-1 favorite on this board. We have a probable underpair and 8 outs to the non-Nut straight, 2 outs to a set.

[rockin]

[ QUOTE ]
8 outs to the non-Nut straight

[/ QUOTE ]

possibly 4. In figuring out your equity, because you have the bottom end of the straight, I would count your straight outs as somewhere in between, maybe 6 or less.