A question for those who know more about stats or poker than me

[BvlyHls90210]

I am an 8 tabling 109 speed SnG regular. Let's say over my last 1000 SnGs I have an ROI of 7.5%. Now I also play the 109 regulars and the 77 speeds from time to time for various reasons, but my stats in those games are much less valid due to sample size. In any case, during my last 1000 speed 109s, I have played 100 77 speeds at an ROI of 15%, and 100 regular 109s at an ROI of 22.5% .

My goal is to maximize my hourly rate. That means if I am to switch to playing 77 speeds, my ROI would need to be 41.5% higher, and if I were to switch to the 109 regulars, my ROI would have to be 100% higher (assuming they take twice as long). Based on my current sample, these conditions are being met, and if my sample was valid, I am leaving money on the table by playing my least profitable game).

So my question is at what ratio of my 109 speed sample size to the other samples can I validly make these conclusions? Or ]am I already there? I know 100 means absolutely nothing, but I feel like someone who knows a lot about statistics and poker could say the 100 regular 109 SnG results do mean something if we know with some statistical validity what the same person is doing at speed 109 SnGs.

Tangentially I'd be curious if anyone has big sample like these that can help me with these comparisons (between levels and between regulars and speeds at the same level).

[Kristian]

The ratio of your sample sizes to one another means nothing from a theoretical viewpoint, unless you are able to specify a relationship between the two groups you are considering (for example 109 speeds vs. regulars). The question is only whether each sample size is large enough, and you already know that at least 2 out of 3 are way to small to draw any conclusion at all. So I would advice against searching for any statistical theoretical answers.

From a practical/poker point of view, I would not let a very slight increase in hourly rate determine whether I should play speeds or regulars, I would simply play the one I thought were most fun/enjoyable/relaxing/g00t, at least when both seem to be working out very well for you. Also, I doubt you could improve your hourly rate very much if you are able to crank out 7,5% ROI at the speeds + bonii and other*.

In any case, congratulations on your solid results, do I detect a slight hint of a brag post? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


*Espresso makers and stress cubes.

[JC_Saves]

is 7.5% a good ROI in a general sense?

And also, have you ever figured out or do an experiment if you only 4-tabled what your ROI would be?

I am more curious than anything about how many you play in a given day and what your typical hourly rate is on average if you don't mind sharing. I have been moving up and splash around the 55s on stars, but mainly play the 25s.

[TravestyFund]

Ive played with you a lot over the past month. You seem solid, ect.(no terrible notes on you, lol). I just wanted to let you know, Ive played close to 3000 55/77/109/215 in past two months or so, and I generally prefer to switch it up on occasion. As a high volume player I find that complacency tends to be a prob. I also feel like its important to not just be comnfortable at a certain game/stake/structure. I enjoy a change of pace, and it hardly affects youre hourly rate if done properly/efficiently.

[Kristian]

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is 7.5% a good ROI in a general sense?


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8-tabling 109 speeds at 7-9% ROI rates as excellent IMO. I would guess that very few players are able to do significantly better than that in the long run.

[bennies]

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is 7.5% a good ROI in a general sense?


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8-tabling 109 speeds at 7-9% ROI rates as excellent IMO. I would guess that very few players are able to do significantly better than that in the long run.

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seconded