Boring flop GS+Overs

[sharpie]

Commerce 20/40

Fish limps, I isolate in HJ with KQo, old white guy 3 bets in BB, I'm guessing AK+ JJ+, FWIW in a previous hand he failed to 3 bet the turn with 2 pair on A2xx against my AK. Fish calls.

Flop T93r

BB bets, fish raises, I 3 ball?

[vmacosta]

in my experience, even passive live players will often cap kk+ here.

I think you can just go ahead and fold, but if I continued I don't see what's wrong with merely coldcalling since the fish has top pair with a bway kicker pretty damn often and getting ak to fold isn't that useful.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

two things you should mention in your post: you say you isoraised from the hj, but where did the fish limp from? that leads to the other question, is old white guy astute enough to know you may be raising light here?

anyways you're getting 12-3 immediately to 3-bet, 13-3 if the bb folds and fish calls, 15-3 if both guys call. however if it gets capped you're looking at 17-4

let's give old white guy a range of AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, since he's like, old and stuff.

12 combos of AK - 7 outs
6 combos of AA - 4 outs
3 combos of KK - 4 outs
3 combos of QQ - 7 outs
6 combos of JJ - 6 outs

Rough weighted outs: 177/30 = 5.9

However this figure doesn't account for the redraw AK has if a J hits the turn and a Q on the river and also the negative implied odds on hitting one of your pairs.

But more importantly which almost everybody fails to point out is the fish's hand range. He raised this flop in a 3-bet pot. Chances are he has some sort of piece of this board that taints and takes your outs. i mean there is a decent chance you might have only 3 outs and it is an absolute disaster if he has QJ here.

So with all those factors in place that 5.9 outs looks a lot closer to 5 than 6 and you're getting immediately 4-1 on a 3-bet; 4.3-1 if bb folds and fish calls, and 5-1 if they're both in (in which there is a very good chance you have at best 4 outs) and if it gets capped 4.25-1.

with your weighted outs at around 5ish, you're going to have to make up a little more than 2 big bets to make this cost worthwhile not to mention negative implied odds and redraws the bb and fish have combined.

on the surface it looks like a good chance to fight for your rights but the cost doesn't justify the means in this instance.

if the pot were a little bigger and/or the bb's 3-betting range was a little wider (like hand combos where you might conceivably have 6 to 10 outs or even the best hand) then you might have an argument.

i would fold in this spot though.

[Fianchetto]

[ QUOTE ]
if the pot were a little bigger and/or the bb's 3-betting range was a little wider (like hand combos where you might conceivably have 6 to 10 outs or even the best hand) then you might have an argument.

i would fold in this spot though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

just as a fwiw, i this morning before i wrote my post i saw a pretty detailed response that advocated calling here but it is no longer here.

my response would be, don't be afraid to make an argument even if you end up being wrong. we're all here to learn, not to judge.

[cowboy billy]

[ QUOTE ]
just as a fwiw, i this morning before i wrote my post i saw a pretty detailed response that advocated calling here but it is no longer here.

my response would be, don't be afraid to make an argument even if you end up being wrong. we're all here to learn, not to judge.

[/ QUOTE ]
I lolled

one of those posts was mine, no idea what happened to it actually, perhaps one of the mods can enlighten us?

I think you know your stuff CDC, been reading your posts for a long long time, and you make a compelling argument here

however, in my experience, loose passive older white guys never ever 4-bet, it's like they don't know that's even possible, they will usually just go in c/call mode, bc that's what they do best

the limper isn't going to 4-bet us either, bc if he has a strong hand he wouldn't have raised flop and risk pushing us out, he would wait for expensive street to pop turn

otoh I might have been a little too liberal in thinking we're going to see a free river when we 3-bet, bc we're not guaranteed to see the turn get checked through, but even when we're faced with a bet on the turn, we can still make a +EV move from there on which will regain us some of the EV we lost with the move on the flop, even more so when we've hit, we have some sweet implied odds regardless (which are a lot higher than our rio) and it all adds up

all in all, I agree with you that 3-betting here is marginal, but I do think it's a +EV move and therefore prefer it to folding

if BB was any other type of player than a loose passive one, I'd dump it

FWIW I really don't like calling

[Milo]

Given Old Guy's OOP 3-bet range, this is a fold.

[sharpie]

Thanks for the detailed responses. The fish was on my right in MP2. I hadn't seen the old dude raise PF much, so I didn't have any reason to widen his range. The fish was pretty erratic, being aggressive in wrong spots and vice versa, but I had seen him fastplay a flopped straight which makes things worse for us.

FWIW the old guy called 2 cold, and the fish capped. I called a blank turn and the old guy showed his hand to his neighbor and mucked, what did he have here?

[cowboy billy]

AKs would be my best guess, allthough loose passive older guys wouldn't 3-bet that pre flop, but I'm even more surprised he folded at all...?

clearly I ended up being wrong though, lol

all bow to CDC! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[sharpie]

billy, he wasn't loose, I thought he had enough of an idea to not call with AK on the flop, but I guess not.