Stop and Go with AK - Page 3

seke2 · #21 06-08-2006, 01:18 PM

Betgo, I tried some numbers. Assuming Villain only ever folds stuff like low pocket pairs on a really bad flop (where Hero flops top pair), he's not making a mistake to fold. He'd be getting 8:1 or so pot odds with about 11:1 chance to win.

The only scenario I can think of where Villain MIGHT fold is where he has something like 76s, and flop comes AQ6 or AT9. He's probably not folding either of those, but in those spots where Villain has something around 4 outs, a fold on the flop starts becoming a mistake.

There aren't many hands that:
1) Anyone would actually raise for 3/4 of their stack preflop and then fold the flop
2) Actually have at least 3 or 4 outs when Hero makes TPTK or top two pair so that folding while behind would be a mistake

rockin · #22 06-08-2006, 01:23 PM

All in all without any reads on this guy being a total donk, stopngo = push. We are SO far ahead of his range, why would we ever give him a chance to get away from the flop?

AceLuby · #23 06-08-2006, 01:27 PM

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Betgo, I tried some numbers. Assuming Villain only ever folds stuff like low pocket pairs on a really bad flop (where Hero flops top pair), he's not making a mistake to fold. He'd be getting 8:1 or so pot odds with about 11:1 chance to win.

The only scenario I can think of where Villain MIGHT fold is where he has something like 76s, and flop comes AQ6 or AT9. He's probably not folding either of those, but in those spots where Villain has something around 4 outs, a fold on the flop starts becoming a mistake.

There aren't many hands that:
1) Anyone would actually raise for 3/4 of their stack preflop and then fold the flop
2) Actually have at least 3 or 4 outs when Hero makes TPTK or top two pair so that folding while behind would be a mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

Fact is, is that this shouldn't even be called a 'Stop 'n Go' because it's not. Why the original raiser didn't just push baffles me and to think he won't call 99% of the time on the flop is ridonkulous. This thread should die because we're talking about a move that is made in the wrong situation.

SNG are when:

a) you don't think you have the best hand PF
b) you are going to be 1st to act post flop
c) you think you will get called on a PF push
d) you think they will fold to a post flop push with an unfavorable flop

Since d happens almost never (MAYBE 1%) this isn't the right spot for it.

betgo · #24 06-08-2006, 01:27 PM

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Betgo, I tried some numbers. Assuming Villain only ever folds stuff like low pocket pairs on a really bad flop (where Hero flops top pair), he's not making a mistake to fold. He'd be getting 8:1 or so pot odds with about 11:1 chance to win.

The only scenario I can think of where Villain MIGHT fold is where he has something like 76s, and flop comes AQ6 or AT9. He's probably not folding either of those, but in those spots where Villain has something around 4 outs, a fold on the flop starts becoming a mistake.

There aren't many hands that:
1) Anyone would actually raise for 3/4 of their stack preflop and then fold the flop
2) Actually have at least 3 or 4 outs when Hero makes TPTK or top two pair so that folding while behind would be a mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

You are assuming villain only folds when hero makes top pair. Maybe the flop comes JT9 and villain folds 22 when he ahead. Or Maybe it comes 753 and he folds QJs.

I really think in general that not knowing hero's hand villain has pot odds to call will whatever he raised with.

seke2 · #25 06-08-2006, 01:33 PM

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You are assuming villain only folds when hero makes top pair. Maybe the flop comes JT9 and villain folds 22 when he ahead. Or Maybe it comes 753 and he folds QJs.

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Yes, I am assuming that. I don't think Villain folds 22 unless there's an ace and/or king on the board, since they'd be more likely to believe Hero has an ace. And I don't think Villain folds QJs on a 753 board because even if he gives Hero credit for top pair or a small overpair, he still has the odds to call with his 6 possible overcard outs.

Basically, to come up with a scenario when Villain actually folds the flop under ANY circumstances requires Villain to have a hand that seems completely horrible given the flop and that he's practically drawing dead. You need the "perfect storm" to let Villain get away here. But there are a small number of times where I think that's possible, as where I do not think there are any circumstances that Villain folds while he actually is ahead or even circumstances where he has proper odds while behind.

AceLuby · #26 06-08-2006, 01:33 PM

Why chance it, put him in PF!!!

Moose747 · #27 06-08-2006, 01:34 PM

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All in all without any reads on this guy being a total donk, stopngo = push. We are SO far ahead of his range, why would we ever give him a chance to get away from the flop?

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Because it's likely a good thing that he gets away from the flop. There are enough times he makes a mistake by folding the flop when he has the 3 outs or whatever he needs to justify the times he folds without the 3 outs he needs. If villain is not a total donk, he will always call anyway. However, by raising the amount he did, he makes it more likely he is a total donk.

rockin · #28 06-08-2006, 02:56 PM

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Because it's likely a good thing that he gets away from the flop. There are enough times he makes a mistake by folding the flop when he has the 3 outs or whatever he needs to justify the times he folds without the 3 outs he needs.

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???

seke2 · #29 06-08-2006, 03:04 PM

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Because it's likely a good thing that he gets away from the flop. There are enough times he makes a mistake by folding the flop when he has the 3 outs or whatever he needs to justify the times he folds without the 3 outs he needs.

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???

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If Villain has 3 outs here on the flop (say, he has Ah4h, you have AcKc, flop comes QdJd9d), he technically is making a mistake by folding when you push, since he's roughly an slightly less than a 8:1 dog getting roughly 8:1 odds.

So I guess that's the one scenarion where you'd actually "want" the other to fold.

betgo · #30 06-08-2006, 03:05 PM

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Because it's likely a good thing that he gets away from the flop. There are enough times he makes a mistake by folding the flop when he has the 3 outs or whatever he needs to justify the times he folds without the 3 outs he needs.

[/ QUOTE ]

???

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Villain is getting like 9-1 pot odds to call, so he should call no matter what, since he doesn't know hero's hand. If villain folds, he is making a bad play to begin with. It is likely then that villain folds when he is on average less than a 9-1 dog.