nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
FFS. Why would u c/c? Enjoy playing for stacks on the J/Q turn? What exactly r u scared of here? His set?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. Betting in poker is not just "HULK AHEAD! HULK SMASH!"

I think c/r is fine, because AQ,AJ,AT all call. Hell, sometimes QQ and KQ give themselves too many outs and call.

c/c is also fine.

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FFS. Why would u c/c? Enjoy playing for stacks on the J/Q turn? What exactly r u scared of here? His set?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. Betting in poker is not just "HULK AHEAD! HULK SMASH!"

I think c/r is fine, because AQ,AJ,AT all call. Hell, sometimes QQ and KQ give themselves too many outs and call.

c/c is also fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his range is weighted away from AJ and AT given pf and i dont think u can guarantee that aj and aq go broke here. Also, to expect pocket queens and KQ to go broke here is pretty unrealistic

[gimmetheloot]

Any1 like to donk here?

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FFS. Why would u c/c? Enjoy playing for stacks on the J/Q turn? What exactly r u scared of here? His set?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. Betting in poker is not just "HULK AHEAD! HULK SMASH!"

I think c/r is fine, because AQ,AJ,AT all call. Hell, sometimes QQ and KQ give themselves too many outs and call.

c/c is also fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his range is weighted away from AJ and AT given pf and i dont think u can guarantee that aj and aq go broke here. Also, to expect pocket queens and KQ to go broke here is pretty unrealistic

[/ QUOTE ]

14 hands. 14 [censored] hands.

Also, learn to table-select better if your villains are so awesome at folding.

In any case, too much work. Ike already gave you the answer. Just stove his calling range.

If his range is only sets + Aces Up + AQ you are a 2:1 favorite.

204,930 games 0.003 secs 68,310,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Ks Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.232% 54.92% 09.31% 112545 19086.50 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 35.768% 26.45% 09.31% 54212 19086.50 { KK+, TT, AQs+, ATs, AQo+, ATo }

I mean, given how tight *you* think villain is, he can never have the nuts here, right? So this is easy.

[markuisis]

so its tight to not go broke with queens on this flop? or to fold 2nd pair to a shove? must be fun getting stacked on every flop.

[scallop]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FFS. Why would u c/c? Enjoy playing for stacks on the J/Q turn? What exactly r u scared of here? His set?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. Betting in poker is not just "HULK AHEAD! HULK SMASH!"

I think c/r is fine, because AQ,AJ,AT all call. Hell, sometimes QQ and KQ give themselves too many outs and call.

c/c is also fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. That's the wrong word. It's about giving ourselves opportunities to make easy decisions where out expected value is positive.

Ideally we want to play well, and we want our opponents to play poorly.

In other words, we want to make correct decisions and we want our opponents to make incorrect decisions.


Playing this flop passively gives us opportunities to:

a) Either make an incorrect decision on the flop. If he has AQ/AJ/QQ/JJ/22+ we want to raise now and get money into the pot while we have the best hand. Charge him for draws.

b) Make an incorrect decision on future streets. This turn highlights this perfectly. Really we have no clue about your opponents hand because other than calling, betting into a caller is a pretty passive move (that *might* be retarded) that doesnt allow us to deduce much about our opponents hand that couldn't be summarised as:

"i have played this hand so weakly that that he could be betting because there is a high chance my line folds"

And that brings us back to making easy decisions. The above idea is saying

"[censored], I could level myself so many times because if he knows this then his range just got massive"

Finally, TT+/AQ/AK typically is my 3-betting range.


28,710 games 0.005 secs 5,742,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Ks Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.291% 56.85% 07.44% 16322 2136.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 35.709% 28.27% 07.44% 8116 2136.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

So putting money in the pot is good.


Board: Ah Ks Td Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.879% 26.33% 11.55% 278 122.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 62.121% 50.57% 11.55% 534 122.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Putting money in the pot is bad.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
so its tight to not go broke with queens on this flop? or to fold 2nd pair to a shove? must be fun getting stacked on every flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

About as much fun as earning the minimum every time you flop the nuts in 3-bet pots.

I didn't say I felt QQ here.

I said a lot of villains do.

I make money by giving the villains a chance to donate it to me.

You lose money by always being afraid you are way behind. Even when I paint you a [censored] picture with a really tight calling range.

Whatever, though. Feel free to keep disagreeing with the whole board. GL with poker.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.291% 56.85% 07.44% 16322 2136.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 35.709% 28.27% 07.44% 8116 2136.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

So putting money in the pot is good.


Board: Ah Ks Td Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.879% 26.33% 11.55% 278 122.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 62.121% 50.57% 11.55% 534 122.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Putting money in the pot is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you in principal. But you are being results-oriented. There are 8 Js or Qs in the deck, not 35. There are plenty of blank turns. Also consider that those Js or Qs will make TT,KK,AA,and AK all slow down on the turn as well -- that is, they are bad cards for you, but not complete disasters.

By the way, this is a different issue than my argument with the OP. I actually think it is correct to c/r here for value -- but not because I'm afraid of a turn J/Q.

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so its tight to not go broke with queens on this flop? or to fold 2nd pair to a shove? must be fun getting stacked on every flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

About as much fun as earning the minimum every time you flop the nuts in 3-bet pots.

I didn't say I felt QQ here.

I said a lot of villains do.

I make money by giving the villains a chance to donate it to me.

You lose money by always being afraid you are way behind. Even when I paint you a [censored] picture with a really tight calling range.

Whatever, though. Feel free to keep disagreeing with the whole board. GL with poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we couldnt just hope that villain is making some retarded play (such as felting aq, kq, qq, or jj on this board - if thats what ur "tight" calling range is then....), I think ud agree that hero is rarely ahead and either tying or dead. Our hand is pretty far from the nuts. c/c and re-evaluate. Plus, villains flop bet seems very strong.

[markuisis]

BTW, i dont think qq or jj bet this flop when checked to very often at all and id rather not assume ppl 3bet an utg raiser with aj or a10 (even aq sometimes) AND felt this flop.