new more damning absolute evidence

[teddyFBI]

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Have been reading all of these threads, and just wanted to say thanks to adanthar, josem, nat, chuddo, teddy, all you guys. Whether or not this gets out, whether or not it's good for poker, it's been an expert - and entertaining - investigation from the beginning.

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how come nobody on 2+2 thanks me and Marco? you guys hate P5s that much or what? lolz

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thanks waco and marco, it was huge to get copies of the ss out to everyone

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[TheWacoKidd]

well, honestly I wasn't fishing for ty's but simply making an observation... but you're welcome guys, just doing what is right and what is good for the game in the long run...

when I read AP's official response and showed Marco we both knew how bad they were lying, and then realized we held the smoking gun and were finally motivated enough to do something about it... when Marco showed me the file of what he had needless to say I was blown away with all the info AP gave him and knew I had to do whatever it took to get this info into the hands of people who are more competent with these types of things than me...

with that being said, I would like to thank Nat, Inspector Chuddo, Adam Junglen, adanthar and all my friends here at 2+2 for their amazing work so far on this <3

[MrTimCaum]

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with that being said, I would like to thank Nat, Inspector Chuddo, Adam Junglen, adanthar and all my friends here at 2+2 for their amazing work so far on this <3

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[otis_nixon]

N8, don't you own some % of Bluff Magazine or know those guys or something?

If so, what do they think of all this? Do they accept ad $ from Absolute and if they do will they continue to?

[N 82 50 24]

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N8, don't you own some % of Bluff Magazine or know those guys or something?

If so, what do they think of all this? Do they accept ad $ from Absolute and if they do will they continue to?

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Yes, I own a % of BLUFF Media.

I am in contact with them and I am going to assist them in writing a story on the situation. I won't put my name on the story unless I'm satisfied with it.

In terms of the ad $, I just don't see BLUFF giving up their relationship with UB and AP. I wish we could, but I don't see the people in charge of BLUFF actually doing it. I don't have control over it. That being said, they want to get a statement from AP on these latest issues before making a decision. Of course, we all know the statement that AP might or might not put out will just apologize for the info leak and continue to claim there was not cheating going on.

[pzhon]

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Using Google, I tried to find something else that occurred at fifteen standard deviations. I couldn't find anything.

The Wikipedia entry on Standard Deviation lists the confidence interval of 7SD at 99.99999999974%. That is to say, that on a normally distributed data set, 99.999999999,74% of the results will be within standard deviations - or, to put it another way, 26/100,000,000,000 - twenty six in every hundred billion.

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While I think the evidence is exremely strong, this greatly overstates the case, since nothing says that the distribution has to be normal or anywhere close to normal. The Central Limit Theorem says nothing about the underlying distribution of true win rates. You can't use the probability that a normally distributed random variable would be 15 or more standard deviations away from average.

More work needs to be done to quantify how unlikely it would be to see something like this when you can't see your opponents' hole cards. One problem is that there could be other tells that would allow a non-cheating player to get information. For example, if a player thinks for 20 seconds and then checks, this might mean they have a different hand range than if they check quickly, and someone who just recognizes this difference may appear to have inside information according to a naive test.

[NNNNOOOOONAN]

nat,

if you WERE majority shareholder and you WERE the one that made the decision to run the story and risk probably giving up that ad money, do you think you would run the story?

if you want to answer the question, be completely honest.

if you don't want to answer the question i think we all COMPLETELY understand. i don't know if i could answer that question myself if i was put in that position.

[N 82 50 24]

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nat,

if you WERE majority shareholder and you WERE the one that made the decision to run the story and risk probably giving up that ad money, do you think you would run the story?

if you want to answer the question, be completely honest.

if you don't want to answer the question i think we all COMPLETELY understand. i don't know if i could answer that question myself if i was put in that position.

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I would. I'd find another way to make money and I think I'd gain incredible amounts of respect from 2+2ers, P5ers, etc. And I think history would look kindly on me when the early days of online poker are examined. At some point, the poker world will shift and fall into some kind of regulation (IMO) and decisions such as these will be remembered.

If I needed the ad money to feed my family and it was the only possible way for me to make any money, then I would take the money.

But that isn't the case.

[NNNNOOOOONAN]

you're a good man nat. good man.

def. the kind of person i like to know is running important investigations like this, and is a % shareholder in a major poker media outlet.

[gobbomom]

just extremely impressive guys. Waco, Nat, Marco, everyone else involved......... you all deserve an award, not just thanks. I'm blown away by your intelligence and integrity.