A river c/r bluff

[yad]

I only have 150 hands on villain, but I have him at 19/18/2.5 in that span. He seems pretty decent.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $220.65
Hero (UTG): $223.85
MP: $142
CO: $1,260.95
BTN: $214.55
SB: $365.15

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP folds, CO calls $8, 3 folds

Flop: ($19) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $16</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $44</font>, Hero calls $28

Turn: ($107) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($107) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $45</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $171.85 and is All-In</font>

I would have 3bet the flop with the NFD, but with this low flush draw I though I would just call as it's a smallish raise. Turn plan was c/f. Thoughts on the river play? or any of the earlier streets?

I will be away for the next few hours but will respond when I get back.

[Chicago Twister]

This is totally read &amp; flow-dependant, but yes, this does seem good.

[AaronOC]

i like it and hate it at the same time [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[ImThatGood]

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i like it and hate it at the same time [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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M2 the only call you will get is a winning one

[Noam Chomsky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like it and hate it at the same time [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

M2 the only call you will get is a winning one

[/ QUOTE ]


hmm, I dunno, I think we might just get looked up by 53 here occasionally......

Op - I like it mainly because I don't think he has a whole lot a good % of the time

[yad]

thanks for all the replies. to respond to a few of them:

I thought villain has a draw here a huge amount (often a draw that hit that J on the turn). I don't think he even bets a T on the river (and if he does he folds to the c/r) and figured he'd probably fold a J as well.

FWIW if I got to the river this way with a monster hand I think leading is bad and would generally always c/r.

That said my range of hands that c/r this river for value but also flat call the flop and check the turn is not enormous. I'd do it with QQ+ sometimes, JJ and JT and J9 often, a lower set somewhat less often. I think all this is fairly standard -- so while villain can certainly imagine this being a bluff, he also knows it's quite plausible for me to have a strong hand here too.

will post results in a bit...will let the morning crowd comment if they want first.

[early325]

if villain is decent, he should assume that you're not going to count on him betting the river after he checks turn, he'd expect to lead out most of the time for value here -- so i'd expect him to look you up pretty light here

[Chicago Twister]

then again if you have been check-folding rivers like its your job this could be a perfect spot for a bluff.

like i said, totally flow-dependant.

[Unknown Soldier]

probably good, don't tank the river though

[kslghost]

Villain seems capable of folding from the primary stats you give, but obviously this &lt;3 variance. I actually don't think you need that strong a read, as I see villain folding most all single Ts and possibly some overpairs. Even single jacks.