OFFICIAL WORLD SERIES! - Boston Redsox vs Colorado Rockies

[XXXNoahXXX]

Red Sox Photoshops on Boston.com

[Needle77]

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If the Rox win, would it be considered a huge upset ? Or are they just so hot that it wouldn't surprise many.

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Prolly just a big an upset as App State over Michigan. Maybe bigger. ROX luckboxed there and as an aside Red Sox clearly were the ones that leaked the Paul Byrd HGH information, LDO.

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Right. The Rockies luckboxed all three wins over the Phillies and all four against the D'bags. Wow, I only thought you were dumb in the other thread -- now I know it.

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Are you serious? I mean, christ, you obviously have never read a post I have ever made.

[Mondogarage]

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I think home field's going to matter a lot in Denver, because a) Manny playing the huge outfield in Coors, and b) you're not going to have Youkilis and Ortiz both in the lineup, which will neutralize some of Boston's offensive advantage.

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the manny on defense point is valid. but even with youkilis out of the lineup, the BOS offense is clearly better. the only position where you have a clearly superior hitter is at SS. your corner outfielders were better in the regular season, but if you look at drew and manny's career stats and recent performance, they are regressing to the mean right now and both swinging the bat well. sox have a clear advantage at 2B, C and CF, ortiz is better than helton if he's in there at 1B, and 3B is close to a push / slight edge to the sox imo.

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I'd call RF a push.

Obv, Boston has an offensive advantage -- I just don't think it's going to be as big in the three Coors Field games as a lot of other people think. And, I know Sox fans think this is stupid, but seriously, I'd start Youk at first against the Rox. His bat is insanely hot right now, and if Ortiz starts, I predict two successful drag bunts down the 1st base line nightly. (I wouldn't mess with Lowell, he's a vacuum.)

Whatever their other shortcomings, Taveras and Matsui are flat out two of the fastest home-to-first in MLB. Taveras nearly set a record for bunt hits this year, and he missed about 35% of the season.

[NT!]

it's not a huge offensive advantage, i said even in BOS i think the advantage is distinct but not huge. however they will have similar quality starters going and their bullpen is definitely better.

the biggest concern for me for the sox is their ability to hit LHP, but they have roughed up a bunch of good LHP's already this postseason so i'm not really sweating it.

[Mondogarage]

Well, if they do what I think and substitute Cook for Morales, the Rox will only have one LH starter, anyway. Almost makes me want to sub Cook for Fogg instead of Morales, but Morales isn't ready for that stage.

[chev9]

WTF with the tickets? Is there really an announcement coming tonight? I need some sleep.

[J.A.Sucker]

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ok i will break down the matchups a bit.

starting pitching: red sox have a major advantage here. the rockies' best asset is that neither team has seen the other's starters that much, which may help their guys be effective at first. beckett and schilling are both pitching a good deal better right now than any of colorado's starters, and the sox have a ton of proven post-season experience.

ERA+ for likely starters:

COL:
Francis 114
Cook 116
Fogg 97
Jimenez 112

BOS:
Beckett 145
Schilling 122
Dice K 108
Wake 100

So basically, Sox have a huge advantage in the top two and the bottom two are close to a push.

offense: rockies lineup away from coors field is decent by NL west standards, but not outstanding. they will be starting three guys with an OPS+ under 100. sox will start one (lugo). sox had a slightly higher team OPS+ during the regular season (107 vs 103) and that was with manny being hurt / not being manny, crisp seeing time instead of ellsbury, etc. i don't know if any rockies missed a lot of time this year, the only ones i can think of have sub-100 OPS+ anyway (taveras and matsui).

i think the sox offense is better, not as much better as their pitching, but better.

bench: only guy COL seems to have who isn't total ass is spilborghs. BOS bench seems pretty weak too, although the crappy guys we have are generally less crappy than the total dreck at the end of COL's bench. i doubt this will be a big factor anyway, but neither team's bench is really any good.

bullpen: sox had the best bullpen ERA in baseball this year while playing in the AL East. corpas was absolutely filthy for COL, other than that fuentes is their only real standout that i can see. COL bullpen isn't bad at all, but BOS has three guys with a regular season ERA+ over 200, and have the best reliever in the playoffs in papelbon.

defense and coaching: i don't know much about defensive metrics and i'm not that familiar with hurdle, so i don't have much to say, but my feeling is that COL has a slightly better defense and BOS has slightly better coaching. farrell seems to have done a fantastic job with the staff this year.

baserunning: sox stole only 4 fewer bases and did it at a higher rate, but they also are known for doing hilariously stupid [censored] on the basepaths. meh. slight edge COL? push?
insert obligatory joke about holliday not having to touch the bases in order to win here.

i like the sox in 5. rockies are a fun team to watch but i think they're seriously overmatched here, and anyone who is thinking otherwise is looking at what they did running through the weak NL in the playoffs. look at what these players have done over the long run, look at the gaps in experience and pitching talent, and look at how weak the NL field is compared to boston.

anything can happen, it's the playoffs, but i would say the rockies are a dog to take it to 6 and i'd be shocked if this series goes the full 7. gl though and i hope it's fun to watch.

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NT, Colorado's hitting is at the very least even with Boston's, and probably higher. Not having a DH hurts Boston a lot more than the Rockies. I actually would think that the Rox lineup is slightly better, position by position. Ortiz is a cripple right now. Holliday is better than anyone on the Sox (though Manny is on a tear right now, for sure), and Atkins, Todd, and Tulo are as good a hitter as any non-Manny on the Sox (considering Ortiz is not near 100%). Granted Todd and Tulo have been ass in the playoffs, but we'll see if that changes.

Starting pitching is Boston's biggest advantage. Beckett is unstoppable. However, Francis has been the bees knees for about two months. The dude is cool and collected, and won't be intimidated. The Sox will be heavy favorites in both of Beckett's starts, with good reason. After that, I don't think you've got as big of an advantage as you think. Jiminez has been very tough for two months and Schilling hasn't really been that good. C'mon. After that, both staffs are really not that special (I'm assuming that Cook doesn't come back). Dice-K and Wake are average at best.

Bullpens are very strong on both sides, and I really don't see any advantage. Once again, you only need a couple of great bullpen guys in the playoffs and Corpas/Fuentes are top-notch. Herges has been very solid and looks unflappable. This is really a wash.

Other: The Sox have all the confidence of being able to come back against any adversity, they've been there before, and they have home field (huge). The Rox have lots of confidence knowing that they only have to play slightly above .500 ball and they win the whole shebang. They also don't seem to give a f*ck about anything. Who the hell knows how that will all play out.

I sure don't.

Still, the Sox have to be favored, and my brain think they will win a tough series. That said, I'm a huge homer and will go with my heart!

ROX in 7!!!!!!!!!!!

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ROCKIES!!!!!!111111111111111

[kyro]

I'm a genius. I just realized that for the games in Colorado, we should have Youk at second, Pedroia at short.

kyro for manager of year.

[NT!]

JA,

ortiz may be a cripple, but he's a cripple with the highest regular season OPS+ of anyone in the WS, who has been mashing in the playoffs as well. he is clearly the best hitter on either team, i don't see why you would suddenly expect him to stop raking now that he's facing the worst pitching staff he's seen since september.

i don't know how you would say tulo, atkins or helton are better than anyone on the sox. as you said, two of them have been ass in the playoffs, and their regular season numbers are inflated by park factors and weaker competition. helton had a marginally better offensive season than manny or lowell if you look at OPS+, and that was with manny playing hurt. five sox regulars had better hitting years than either tulowitzki or atkins, and unlike those guys, they are swinging the bats great right now.

i like how you talk about how good jimenez has been in the last two months, but neglect to mention that schilling has ALSO been nails since coming back off the DL (with the exception of game 2 vs cleveland), and has a track record of pitching great in the postseason. schilling's season ERA+ is a full ten points better than jimenez, whose minor league stats and peripherals indicate he is way overdue for a regression to the mean. i'm not saying it will happen as soon as he faces the sox, but he is pitching over his head right now according to pretty much all available data.

as i said, after that the staffs are more or less a push, you're just repeating what i said in my post. but the colorado bullpen is in no way on par with boston's. delcarmen, okajima and papelbon have all been better this season than anyone but corpas for the rockies. the sox had the best bullpen in baseball this year.

i don't see how you can say you only need a couple of great bullpen guys in the playoffs when both teams have middling starters at the back of the rotation and potent offenses. middle relief will be crucial in this series, saying otherwise is totally LOL. and even if you do only need two or three good relievers in the postseason, here is how the top 3 in each pen line up in terms of ERA+

paps 256
oki 214
delcarmen 232

corpas 231
fuentes 155
hawkins 140

not all that close even among the top 3. look at adjusted stats instead of assuming the rockies are as good because they put up good numbers in the NL West.

[wdcbooks]

I had to post this somewhere, so this thread will have to do.

My wife and I planned a getaway in the woods leaving Friday and got back today. We were in a cabin with no television, no cell phone access, and no internet. We are both huge Red Sox fans and watch about 150 games a year.

Our only option was a 1930's antique AM radio. I would like to thank ESPN radio out of Chicago for coming in loud and clear in Oriskany, VA 700 miles away. I love baseball on the radio and I got John Miller instead of Tim McCarver, so I can hardly complain.