Commerce 9: AA, family pot, monotone flop

[danderso8]

Standard commerce 9 game...MP was raising nearly every unraised pot. Hero limp/3bets the field with red AA from UTG+1, everyone calls. (Although, as it turned out, the frequent raiser didn't raise this particular hand, but the guy on his left did.)

Flop is the ugly Jc Tc 4c. Checked to hero...

[Frond]

LRR on this table? I just don't do the LRR thing ever.

[fishyak]

I'd keep betting until I hit a raise. You won't get Ac or Kc to fold, but your odds against them are still favorable. I don't like the JT either. Too many str8 and 2 two pair possibilities. So, you are going to lose this hand a lot, but when you win, huge.

Pray to spike an A or pair the board on your turn.

[chillrob]

If really "everyone" called, I think hero has almost no chance at all here. I guess there is a chance aggressive betting could push out someone who would have beaten hero by the river, but not sure it would be worth it to try when you could already be behind and drawing nearly dead. The only card you will really like to see is the Ace of spades, and even then won't be safe unless the board is paired as well.

[James.]

i guess i would bet.

how many people are left behind you? any aggro players in LP?

[BigBadBabar]

um

[BigBadBabar]

bet

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
If really "everyone" called, I think hero has almost no chance at all here. I guess there is a chance aggressive betting could push out someone who would have beaten hero by the river, but not sure it would be worth it to try when you could already be behind and drawing nearly dead. The only card you will really like to see is the Ace of spades, and even then won't be safe unless the board is paired as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

806,487 games 42.469 secs 18,990 games/sec

Board: Jc Tc 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.721% 13.51% 00.22% 108988 1809.72 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 10.780% 10.42% 00.38% 83997 3051.56 { random }
Hand 2: 10.755% 10.40% 00.37% 83900 2952.56 { random }
Hand 3: 10.795% 10.44% 00.37% 84164 3005.56 { random }
Hand 4: 10.807% 10.45% 00.38% 84239 3025.81 { random }
Hand 5: 10.769% 10.41% 00.37% 83979 2982.22 { random }
Hand 6: 10.791% 10.43% 00.38% 84084 3055.22 { random }
Hand 7: 10.753% 10.39% 00.37% 83810 3019.31 { random }
Hand 8: 10.830% 10.48% 00.37% 84489 2969.06 { random }

Not much better than a random hand... but considering all the money in the pot we certainly can't fold unless a terrible card hits or we get a ton of action.

I bet the flop and go from there.

I like preflop.

[Fnord]

Don't fold, otherwise I don't think it matters much.

[Frond]

I just haven't yet seen a table when if I raise anything from UTG1 that I won't get several callers. Haven't yet played the 9 there but have played some 8 and it is never a problem. I suppose if the frequent raiser is really frequent as in almost every hand, then the move may work.

I take that back, I did raise AA once playing 2/4 last year UTG and everyone folded to me. Only time though