Four Winds 200NL Hand #3

[marchron]

All these hands came chronologically, so it's just a coincidence that they also come in increasing amount of mobnies won and also increasing amounts of stupidity displayed. This was the zenith, the apex, the pinnacle of duhhhh. Posting this is begging for an asskicking.

It happened immediately after Hand #2. Then I was second to act, here I'm UTG. "Smoker" from Hand #1 becomes the most relevant Villain here. I don't remember exactly how much he had at this point, but I'm in the $180 range and he can't have had much more or less than that.

Live 1/2

I have A6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and limp. Like seven people come in, including the blinds.

Flop: ($14) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Checked to me, I bet $5, get three calls, blinds fold.

Turn: ($34) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet $10, Smoker raises to $25, and even though the part where I make excuses to justify my stupidity isn't until later, I must stress now that I only called here because I wanted to get his stack on the river.

River: ($84) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check, Smoker bets $50, I call because I'm a wuss and I don't want to get stacked by sevens full.

Showdown: ($184)
Smoker has K6o, MHIG.


KEY DECISION POINTS (actually, I think these are all of my decision points):
1. Preflop limp. Generally at this table, if the opener limped instead of raised, about 2/3 of the time it was a multiway limped pot; the rest of the time either someone made a ridiculously small raise to $7 or something, accomplishing nothing but sweetening the pot, or making a ridiculously large overraise to $25 with trash as a squeeze play (in fact, I stacked someone who did that with A9s and I made a brilliant read with AQs to commit him for the rest of his stack). With that in mind, good spot for a limp from EP with a suited Ace?

2. Flop bet. I felt like half-potting would be too much given that I wasn't the aggressor. I wanted either multiple calls or one dude to think I was FOS and raise me. I got the former.

3. Turn bet. Too small, and I realize that looking at it now. Can I now half-pot or thereabouts?

4. Turn call. I'm looking at a $15 raise into a $69 pot with ~$160 behind. Shoving is too much. Reraising him $40 more seems about right, as that would leave me with about $120 and the pot at $164, a good size for a river shove. However, I didn't want to telegraph that I flopped a boat by bet/3-betting and kill my action. Am I anywhere close to making sense, or should I have just shoved and hoped I had him coolered?

5. River check/call. Obviously I shouldn't be here, because one way or another I should have made the pot so big that a push is mandatory. But now that I'm here, is my call good?

At the table, I went headfirst into the tank while I contemplated Smoker's range here given his action thus far. I don't think he has a flush, because he would have picked an odd time to semibluff it. And I don't think he's brave or stupid enough to try ramming through a bluff with a pocket pair. So he's hit this board somewhere: he either has an A, a 6, or a 7.

If he has an A, on the turn it's either AK/AQ or A7/A6. Something lower or in the middle probably doesn't raise. On the river, AK and AQ check behind, so throw those out. There's also a very small chance he has a stupidly played AA.

Any 6 is in his range, but I don't know how many of those hands there are. Let's just set up with A6, 86, 76, 65 and 64.

Similarly, he could have A7, 97, 87, 76, 75, or the unlikely 77, but we can reduce that to just A7, 76 and 77 since the rest of them wouldn't take one off on the flop.

So 6x is still the biggest part of his range, but when the river gave 6x bottom boat, for him to bet into that when he has the option of checking behind either means he's just not afraid of the board pair of sevens, or he has one. After the river bet, I assigned 6x a smaller probability and 7x a bigger one, and took the cheap way out and called.

Let the ass-whoopin' begin!

[MrWookie]

I don't mean to be overly results-oriented, but it looks like you deliberately left K6 out of his range. At a loose live 1/2 NL table, I think we need to include a lot more crappy 6x hands in his range here, hands that will probably not fold the turn for any amount of money.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mean to be overly results-oriented, but it looks like you deliberately left K6 out of his range. At a loose live 1/2 NL table, I think we need to include a lot more crappy 6x hands in his range here, hands that will probably not fold the turn for any amount of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree... live players love to limp any suited cards. Seeing any 6xs would not shock me one bit.

It's really hard to put him on a 7 here unless it is 67 or A7. I'm probably making it $75 to go on the turn and pushing basically any river (whether that's good or not [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mean to be overly results-oriented, but it looks like you deliberately left K6 out of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I just never conceived of it. When I think of the likeliest hands to contain exactly one 6, I usually think of A6 and the connectors and semiconnectors. Smoker was in late enough position (in fact, I think he was OTB) that I should have included random suited crap like K6s, but it would have been weeks before I put him on K6o.

[jstill]

id fold pre even at these kind of tables

im sure people get stacked more live than online when the flush hits and theyre flushless but its still not a deceptive hand to make and u rarely flop trips or two pair to get paid well... i just think the open limp is -EV in general

on the flop, whatever u can bet smallish if u want but id still half pot atleast. The same hands are gonna call 7 as 5: fds, Ax and 6x and if theyre gonna bluff u when u bet into a 7 way pot they probably are almost as likely to when u bet 7 as 5

on the turn bet a bit bigger for sure (id go atleast 20) hes either got Ax and wont put u on a good kicker since u limped or hes got a fd which wont fold for a larger bet or 6x in which case u should definitely stack him.

3bet the turn for sure, u want to bet large enough that on the river u can put him in for less than a pot size bet as he ll already be committed with AJ AQ AK A7 6x or a semi bluff that hit (obviously the last two wont fold to a river shove even if u 3bet the turn small).

on the turn id 3bet to probably 60-70 total that way on the river u can put him in for his last 100 or so and he ll be getting over 2:1 on a call.

on the river after his bet hes still got about 100 left I think id just put him in. the 7 of spades river makes 77 only one combo which probably folds the flop pretty often and eliminates the possibility he has 7xss and was semi bluffing the turn when he paired with his fd but boated the river. I think u still want to get money in u cant just call. His most likely hands are six x and TPGK or a flush 7x can be discounted extremely except for A7 which is only 4 combos. U could min cr I guess but u cant fold for another 50 after that so I guess I'd just put him in altho how much to 3bet the turn and whether to cr to 100 - 150 on the river is partly reads and I didnt read ur previous posts about "the smoker", if hes loose just cr him all in as played but really u just want to 3bet the turn large enough he'll be calling slightly less than a pot size bet shove on the river.