Trip KKK's on river, me and Perry disagree.

[Kirkrrr]

The debate here is betting 7th (S6 is Perry Friedman). Like I told him in the chatbox, my betting was automatic, ie I have trips = BET. He didn't agree. Want to hear your guys' opinion on this.

7 Card Stud High ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.00 SB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___raises
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___calls

5th Street - (4.50 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (6.50 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

River - (8.50 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___calls

Total pot: (10.50 BB - $63)

Should I have made the bet on 7th or not?

Kirk

[cgrohman]

absolutely

[studebakerhawk]

While trips != autobet but in this situation I can't see myself doing anything differently. While the 6d is certainly a scare card, I would imagine that you would have seen a raise if that made either of the possible hands.

[peritonlogon]

Assuming that my opponent is a tight player, that will lay down 2 small pair I am not betting here, if he is the type that will call with 2 small pair, I am betting here.

he has 567 showing and three diamonds

There are 2 diamonds dead
You have seen 0 fours
And 0 eights
1 nine
and 1 three.

2 small pair is likely since he caught the 6 (if he was on a strait draw or had a back door, the 6 most likely paired him), but so are the one of the 2 draws. He will probably not raise with a flush or strait, but will bet with them and you will call. This is what the majority of stud players will do against an aggressive paired door card.

However, if he will check behind but call with the 2 small pair then you have to bet. If he will fold 2 small pair, then you should not bet, since your bet has -ev.

Based on this one hand, it looks to me like opp thinks he might be defending against a steel the whole way, or defending with a pair and a draw. For this reason, I would bet the river. But I don't know how he plays.

[PoorLawyer]

The question really is will he call with a worse hand more often than he will raise with a better hand.

While Perry is in red on full tilt, I have found him so far to be pretty loose (and a big whiner that he chalks up to his being there to teach people). I have him at 38%VPIP in a small sample size.

I think in the particular hand he has to put you on at least Kings up given your reraise on 4th without an obvious draw showing (even if he thinks you are stealing he should give you credit for something here besides bare Ks most of the time). Given that, I don't think a river bet has much value unless he started with Aces. His call on 6th indicates that he is most likely drawing or has you beat already and is a wuss. Either way, I don't see him calling too often with something that doesn't beat Kings up unless he just wants to see it and whine about it.

[HOWMANY]

Before I give my ideas, I'll first say that I'm basing it on the assumption that Perry thinks somewhat logically and that he assumes you think somewhat logically also.

So if you check the river and he bets, this means you should fold. He shouldn't expect you to fold Kings up or better, so he's value betting.

If you bet the river then you cannot call a raise because once again he can't expect you to fold.

However, if you bet on the river, Perry knows your worst hand you can have is Kings up, so he has to have a hand that beats Kings up to call, I think him having Aces up is incredibly unlikely, and I also think that trips is similarly unlikely.

So, if he's playing well and is expecting that you are playing a solid style, I think the most profitable play is a check/fold. Seriously.

If Perry is just randomly betting when people check to him and calling down with any two pair or better like an idiot then I think check/call or betting are fine.

I have a hard time giving a "pro" credit for making good plays at 3/6, so I'd bet like you did.

[lstream]

[ QUOTE ]
While Perry is in red on full tilt, I have found him so far to be pretty loose

[/ QUOTE ]
I am brand new to Full Tilt and in my second session I was at the table with this guy. Who is he exactly? Sure enough, he was whining about the play of some guy and chalking it up to helping/teaching.

He struck me as way too loose as well, but if he is some kind of stud pro then maybe I am judging him too soon.

[southerndog]

I assume his point is that he called your open kings on sixth meaning that he has a likely draw. If this is the case, your bet only loses money because he can raise when he gets there, costing u two bets , or fold if he whiffed.

Of course, people find lots of reasons to call on the river, especially in pots this big. Given your position on 3rd st, he may still not be convinced the whole thing is not a charade, and make a desparation call.

You don't make bets on the river just because you think you're ahead. You make them when you figure you're ahead the times you're called.

[Andy B]

If you check the river, it should be in the hopes of picking off a bluff. Check-folding would be ridiculous.

If you think that Perry is on a draw and only a draw, then a river bet has no value. Even with his draw-heavy board, he will hit something good enough to look you up with often enough that the river bet should be profitable.

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think that Perry is on a draw and only a draw, then a river bet has no value. Even with his draw-heavy board, he will hit something good enough to look you up with often enough that the river bet should be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Profitable enough for the times Perry makes a straight or flush (or better) and raises? Can/should Perry raise with a straight or flush as this hand played out? (I don't know)