An Unexpected Wager

Jeffage · #1 10-10-2006, 10:27 PM

75 stud at Borgata. Four handed must move game. I have (J6) J and raise after a loose passive player limps with a ten up. This player is not loose aggressive but plays many hands and goes to far with them. He will sometimes make a play though and has a few tricks, but generally goes to the river alot. Anyway, we see 4th street heads up (suits didn't seem important to the hand, so I won't bother making them up).

4th Street

Hero: (J6) J 10

Villain: (xx) 10 6

I'm high and bet out. Villain calls.

5th Street

Hero: (J6) J 10 Q

Villain: (xx) 10 6 4

I bet, villain calls.

6th Street

Hero: (J6) J 10 Q A

Villain: (xx) 10 6 4 4

Villain now leads into my board. WTF? He's quite passive, but like I said not a rock. That said, his bet is pretty bold into my board and I got a very bad feeling about it.

FWIW, all my cards, including the kings are totally live. Thoughts?

P.S. This was one of the worst weekends I've ever had gambling - hopefully you all fared better.

Jeff

mscags · #2 10-10-2006, 10:30 PM

I'm gonna take a shot at this one. This situation seems familar. I think given your description of the villian I would just call and fold the river UI. I think alot of people will say raise here and check behind the river UI, but I don't really like that option, you charge yourself two bets when you're very likely behind (given your description of him) Calling and folding river UI seems best to me.

Bremen · #3 10-10-2006, 10:35 PM

Weird. Seems like 2 pair, maybe he's only looking at his hand and not your board?? I'd think even a very passive opponent would go for a checkraise with a boat, unless he is actually trying for a 3bet...

I agree with mscags, call and fold river UI. But what do I know, I suck at stud [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

*TT* · #4 10-10-2006, 11:02 PM

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FWIW, all my cards, including the kings are totally live. Thoughts?

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but how live are your opponent's cards? With a one card draw I'm not feeling too comfortable.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Jeffage · #5 10-10-2006, 11:06 PM

Well, I have a ten, his fours and sixes are live but remember I only saw two other upcards since we're four-handed.

Jeff

*TT* · #6 10-10-2006, 11:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I have a ten, his fours and sixes are live but remember I only saw two other upcards since we're four-handed.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

he has got 6 live cards, and you got a million trillion. I like your odds but it is a coinflip. Call.

PS: Thank you Jeffage for encouraging me to play stud, this is my new favorite forum because Stud and RAZZ are such logical games.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Jeffage · #7 10-10-2006, 11:10 PM

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I like your odds but it is a coinflip.

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I don't really think this hand is about live cards.

Jeff

*TT* · #8 10-10-2006, 11:12 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
I like your odds but it is a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really think this hand is about live cards.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont see where you are going with this yet.

2461Badugi · #9 10-10-2006, 11:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW, all my cards, including the kings are totally live. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm quite happy assigning zero value to your two pair outs, and we have to discount the other six as well. Seems like a simple fold.

frappeboy · #10 10-11-2006, 12:37 AM

This is a tough situation. A bet like this signals to me that it's quite likely he has a full house, or likely that he has just a pair of 4's (perhaps 98 in the hole), but less likely that he has a hand like tens up. Also, if he bets the river, you know almost for sure he doesn't have tens up here.

So I think if you are willing to call 6th street, calling the river no matter what comes is the only consistent play (or else you just admit you messed it up on 6th by calling).

There is currently about 5BB of dead money in the pot, he is betting so you are getting 6-1 to call 6th street, but 7-2 (3.5-1) to call the hand down. This means you need to win the hand about 22% of the time to break even. Against a player like this, here is what I'd estimate as far as a break down of what he had:

60% chance of Full House
10% chance of a hand like pocket aces/kings/queen
15% chance of just a pair of 4s
15% chance of tens up or smaller 2 pair

Your equity against the small 2 pair comes out to about 7.5%, your equity against just 4s is about 11%, the equity against 2 big pair (which you may have an overcard to), is around 4%, and full house is 0%.

So by adding all this up, given these estimates, you have about 22.5% equity, which is very close to your break even point.

This is all just guesswork of course, but I think its very close that either play can't be that bad. I wouldn't worry about it if you decided either way. The only thing I don't like is calling 6th and then just folding the river. Often bets like this mean either monsters, or very weak hands. And if he bets the river that makes it even more likely he was on some type of draw that didn't get there.

In a real life situation, I'd probably lean towards folding though. Just be aware of who is at your table and saw you do this, because they may try something later in the session against you.