Im thinking i played the right??

[Poker CPA]

7th Street: Easy bet, Very easy. But why Jordie? Remember these players are average 2-4 players.

[Brad1970]

Seat 6 probably has 3 diamonds....most 2/4 players a FTP think a 3 suit is a made hand!!!

[jordiepop]

u have a lovely att. by the way ... he had aces actually .. i had no reads but that made alot of sense and considering there were about 7 diamonds gone i wouldnt put him on that. and the dead 3 made it pretty clear he wasnt rolled up.



raising to get out the 9's and play it heads up was a thought but this player with the 9 up is very loose and i knew he wouldnt fold. I was almost sure i had to hit two pair so why bet into a pair of aces???

[frappeboy]

Unless you know seat 7 to be a tight/predictable player, you need to make it 3 bets on 3rd street.

Given the way you played it, I'd probably go for a check raise on 4th.

5th-6th is pretty standard, and I don't think betting for value on the river is any good.

[Poker CPA]

Brad "Probably" as you have used it means, I think, "most likely". I think under the circumstances you would be hard pressed to make this the most likely hand. What you might mean is that "he might have 4 diamonds" going to the river. Huge difference. Yes he might have 4 diamonds but does it ever rise to the level of assurance that this is the best hand he has. You make poker decisions more with "probability" than "might haves". You make players like this pay Brad, and if he gets a flush, the chips have a "stamp" on it. Now on the the Jordie's river decision.

[Poker CPA]

Now Jordie doesn't really address the reason for the river check but reading between the lines, I think he's afraid of As over or trips. Now as frappeboy points out, its a "betting for value" decision. This decision is generally based on probability and player reads. Whats interesting about this hand, it is the most common losing hand in stud, an "unimproved high pair" and especially challenging to one's mental toughness.

Now the facts concerning the this river decision
1. You have 34 unknown cards with 10 outs, for the most probable hand, to make a winning hand. (2 Aces, 1 3h, 2 5s,2 9s and 3 tens). So if you do the simple math, you then win 24 times and lose 10, for a profit of 14BB, but its not quite that simple. You have to account for the "reads". And they are:
1. Will the player raise if he gets the 2 pair? I think under the circumstances the "average player" might raise Jordie more, than me, because of my agression. At most the average player may raise 50% here. But then again its generally accepted you "check" here because of the Ds, and your bet may mean you have "air" and they raise on general principle. But worse case, you're still up 4BB. I think its less than 20%, based on my experience.

2. How many players will lay down Aces in this situation? The average 2-4 player, NEVER. Especially with pot that was built with agression. Only solid stud players will fold and it is not an easy fold.

3. You could use a "Weighted-average" approach here, in that you assign different probability %s the different hands, such as 67% to Aces or Kings; 20% to 10s, Js or Qs; 5% to 3s with an Ace Kicker; 5% to 4 diamonds and so on and so on. This is a bit much.

An solid stud plays by feel, feel requires information and generally you have to pay for this information. This player would have a much better feel where he stood here then as played by Jordie. This bet is, plain and simple, a value bet. In addition, against average 2-4 players, this a positve advertising situation. Bet and be quick about it. Hope for the reaction call. No value bet by Jordie (Error #3)

So there it is boys, fire away.

[Poker CPA]

Yes Stud players there is a Santa. Drinks all around. Error #4.

Using Jordie's own words (or thought process if you may), What is it? Its worse than the three other errors combined. I ask for his thought process on the river, he didn't quite say it but he gave me enough. Hint "I was almost sure I had to hit two pair, so why bet into a pair of Aces." And yeah, lets not forget the ?????

[Brad1970]

[ QUOTE ]
Brad "Probably" as you have used it means, I think, "most likely". I think under the circumstances you would be hard pressed to make this the most likely hand. What you might mean is that "he might have 4 diamonds" going to the river. Huge difference. Yes he might have 4 diamonds but does it ever rise to the level of assurance that this is the best hand he has. You make poker decisions more with "probability" than "might haves". You make players like this pay Brad, and if he gets a flush, the chips have a "stamp" on it. Now on the the Jordie's river decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker CPA, do you play at Full Tilt????

I can assure you that in a 2/4 game at Full Tilt, you can bet your bottom dollar that you will see players raise, re-raise & call multiple raises with any 3 suited cards. This is a lock hand to them & they will not fold it! I did not say this is the ONLY hand he might have, just a possibility from my experience.

What does "the chips have a stamp on it" supposed to mean? Am I missing something?

Futhermore, I don't particularly care for the tone of your remarks about the comment I made to Jordie's post. I was simply pointing out to Jordie, as he probably already knows, that some 2/4 players at FTP waaaaay over value hands especially drawing hands. You seem to be trying to direct your advice towards me, well, I don't need or want your advice, so keep it.

[Poker CPA]

Yes on the First Q and yes I believe you on your 2nd point. I'm just saying the your assigned probability is low in this situation, very low.

Stamp is expression used my some "bookies" l play cards with on Sunday nights. After a bad day, they laugh about how the cash will come right back , as in, "lucky SOB but its got a stamp on it". So stamp = return postage. This type of player will lose it right back to you.

Your last point, I'm simply pointing out there is a difference between "might have" and probablilty. My comments are directed at the hand as played, which was played poorly. Do you have comments about my points? Or is it just the tone? How do you think this hand was played?The man asked "I'm thinking I played this right"? He is looking for an answer and I don't believe you gave him one. I think my answer was quite clear and complete.

As far as the tone. This is not "Dear Abby" but a debate about stud poker. At the tables do you think anyone really cares about you or anybody else. ITS POKER. Now you may not like me, but what about the message. I'm been coming here for 3 years to learn, not make friends, because there is no friendship in poker.

[lstream]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm been coming here for 3 years to learn, not make friends, because there is no friendship in poker.

[/ QUOTE ]
I actually don't agree with your advice on this hand, your tone, or this point. I think you can have friendship in poker, and in my case I have made some good chat friends as a result of poker/ this site. This does not mean that we ease up at the tables when we play each other either.

I think it is possible to give advice without insulting the OP. Give it a try if you want to be taken seriously. At least try respect.