Big pair against probable flush draw.

[dsaxton]

Opponent is a fairly strong aggressive player, although he has a tendency to overplay. This hand is fairly standard, but does anyone raise 5th since his bet is a probable semi-bluff, or do we just call to avoid getting 3-bet in case he started with an ace high 3-flush?

7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (2.90 SB)

Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___raises___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___raises

5th Street - (5.45 BB)

Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (7.45 BB)

Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls

River - (9.45 BB)

Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___checks

Total pot: (9.45 BB)

[Andy B]

Just call the raise on fourth. He's probably the favorite at that point. I would probably just call fifth because you're probably right around even money.

[frappeboy]

4th is a pretty clear call. 5th street is really the only debatable street in this whole hand. Against a player who likes to continue with his bluffs/semi bluffs, smooth calling 5th street is superior to raising (usually the case against a LAG) because you'll get in the raise on 6th when your edge is larger. Against a TAG player you should usually raise immediately, because a strong player won't bluff off all his chips on 6th/7th.

Against any passive player you should once again revert to smooth calling 5th, since a truly passive player wouldnt be raising 4th with a 4 flush and then betting 5th, he likely has something else better than aces.

[Bartholow]

Good post Frappe.

[dsaxton]

Yeah, I should've just called 4th street. I thought the fact that his pair outs were dead suggested that I was the favorite, but I guess this is not the case after running some simulations on twodimes.

[Bartholow]

It's pretty rare that someone has a 100% live flush draw, but when they do it's a pretty strong hand.