Stud high late in MTT: (T9)89 vs. xxJQ

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold on 3rd! Your bluff failed!

[/ QUOTE ]
I wanted to see another card. I had 15 outs to improve of 45 cards left. I am about 40% against an overpair if I pair and 45% if I make a flush draw. I am about 60% with either against an underpair. I am suspicious that villain is bluffing or has less than he is representing.

[betgo]

I am not sure I like my initial raise. The medium 3 straight is kind of dead, I don't hve the chips to fully extract if I make a straight, and the big stack has a higher door card.

I probably saw a real hand short handed and went with it. Of course, if the big stack didn't have anything, he might put me on split tens or a big concealed pair, and if I get by him, the low door cards will almost certainly fold.

Once I raised and caught a card on 4th, I probably had to go with the hand.

[Bartholow]

I don't think your dead straight cards have anything to do with it. Nor do I think this is in any way a "real hand". This is an ante steal with 3 cards higher than all but 1 door card. Again, if the big stack was playing sherriff then don't go for it, but otherwise you are going to need to make some steals to give yourself a shot to do more than sneak into the money.

[frappeboy]

I like the original raise on 3rd, but I think you should fold to the raise. The problem is there is no card you can catch on 4th to make your decision easy.. The best possible card is a jack or seven I guess, which now makes your hand around even money to win (assuming he has jacks which is very likely).

I guess 4th street is probably a call or else you are just admitting you made a huge mistake on 3rd.. I dont think you should jam, you could see the river without getting all-in. and that may allow you to sneak into the money if you happen to lose. I would call 4th with the intention of calling 5th/6th if you see any improvement on 5th (an overcard, 2 pair, gut shot/ open ended draw).