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Old 10-25-2007, 09:52 PM
cjd cjd is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 36
Default Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)

First, sorry this is an image. I didn't want to spend a lot of time figuring out how to make that into a UBB Code table.





I know this issue has been debated before, and the generally accepted idea seems to be not to fold KK preflop up to around 100BB. I'm hoping to bring this discussion to a higher level, at the risk of being called a noob. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

A few disclaimers:
* All my data is based off $0.50NL. I'm sure things are different at different limits.
* These hands are ones I observed going all-in preflop. The vast majority of them I was not all-in preflop, and probably held junk hands.
* I ommitted results in bottom right due to having insufficient data. One hand in a cell doesn't tell you anything.
* Although I included data for QQ-AQo where there were a few hands in one cell, realize that for these hands it's a small sample size. I am not saying that AKs will win 84% of the time for between 30-40BB. 25 hands isn't that many.


When I started playing cash games, I would always be willing to go all-in preflop with KK unless I knew my opponent well enough to know he would only go all-in preflop with AA.

I got burned so many times holding KK all-in preflop against AA, that I stopped being willing to go all-in preflop with KK.

I ran across this humerous picture contest thread that made me think maybe I was giving up +EV by not willing to go all-in preflop with KK for amounts anywhere near 100BB.

So, I ran some custom queries against my PokerTracker database of 180,000 hands at $0.50NL, and the conclusion I come to from my data is that going all-in preflop up to 50BB or 60BB is profitable, but beyond that, it's not.

Based on my data, once you pass the 60BB point, kings win less than 50% of the time, and go into deep negative average BB/hand.



180,000 hands is a large sample size, but obviously not enough to come up with a rock solid conclusion. Does anyone have any data to refute my findings? Were pocket kings just really unlucky during the 180,000 hands I've seen?
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