200NL - TPTK value shove river?

[SnglMaltScotch]

Wow, this one is tough. I am going to assume that the numbers you gave are over a large enough sample size to be revelant.

A good player with a very high AF flat calls you on a super dry board on 2 steets. The flop call has a player yet to act.

My warning bells are going off pretty hard here. Does he just flat call here with KQ/QJ type hands. Being a 20/17 type player, I probably wouldn't call pf with QJ unless suited. I would play AQ/KQ this way but probably 3-bet AQ pf. I would also play 66/44 this way. I don't think that I would call the turn bet with 77-99 or an under pair.

Does he call a psb on the river with KQ. Probably but not always. He does fold a middle pair <TT almost always.

To state the obvious, a value bet is only valuable if it is called and your hand is best. The only hand that I can see him turning up with that we beat is KQ or another passively played AQ.

Option 1: Push for $149. I think this actually gives KQ/QJ a chance to get away. It would be a big fold, but a psb on the river would be a difficult call for KQ. Pretty much everything else that we beat folds.

Option 2: C/C. AQ/KQ probably bets if check to but pretty much everything else checks behind.

Option 3: B/C. Bet an amount that you think KQ will call say $100. I don't think that you can fold if he raises over your $100 given the odds.

I think that I go with bet $100 and throw-up and call a push.

SMS