Prop bet thread

[Ship Ship McGipp]

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Ship Ship - that's what I was sorta thinking too. At ~10 shot attempts a minute, and for a very good shooter around 80% makes over the half hour (factoring in exhaustion). 240 feels about right for even money. But I do not think this is particularly easy to get to at all.

I'm gonna get to a gym and try it out myself, I was a very above average free throw shooter at some point in my life - I just don't have a feel for the accuracy degradation due to exhaustion impact.

I'm not sure if he'll get action at these current lines - would you feel comfortable at 240 even money? Think I definitely would.

-Al

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yea, i would feel comfortable in theory, but in practice i'd have to try it out first

[Assani Fisher]

Aloysius sent me a link to this thread....very interesting, I should probably start checking out this forum more often.

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I'd bet I could out-shoot anyone who has previously posted in this thread best of 50 or 100:

from the college 3-point line
at the bottom of the circle in the key (ie 5-6 feet in front of the foul line)


(offer void if you currently play d1-d3 college ball, or played d1-d2 and are <25)



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I'll take this bet. I'm over 25(9/3/82 birthday) and havn't played competitive basketball since I was 20.



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Guys - free throw prop. # made in half an hour. He gets 2 rebounders and 2 balls. It's a guy from my poker night, I don't know him too well and haven't played with him before. He claims to be >90% in normal circumstances, which is very believable to me (been playing his whole life, played varsity HS basketball). He's in his late 20s and in very good shape. Still plays pick up alot, coaches in a youth league etc.

He'll take action up to $1k on any of the below lines:

185 in 30 min. = even money
205 in 30 min. = 1.3 to 1
225 in 30 min = 1.7 to 1
240 in 30 min = 2.5 to 1
260 in 30 min = 3.5 to 1

Thoughts?

-Al

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Initial thought is that this is massively +EV for him.

Also being a good FT shooter doesn't really matter much here since you're not taking your time like a free throw.

Even figuring for fatigue, I think he should be able to get off about 15 shots per minute, although the shape he is in could definitely come into play.


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very good shooter around 80% makes over the half hour

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Your estimate here may be a bit high though....theres a big difference between free throws and shooting constantly for 30 minutes. Obviously I have no idea about the guy in general, but I woouldn't be surprised if he only hit 70% or so.





While I'm here I might as well extend a prop bet to anyone who will ever be in Vegas:

Tecmo Super Bowl. PLayed on an original NES. The rules:

-We draft all 28 teams(coin flip to determine who gets to choose between #1 overall pick or #2 and #3 overall pick. It alternates after that).

-We play game using one of our 14 teams(if its an issue then take turns who picks which team they use first)

-You lose with a team and they're eliminated

-You can play with any team as much as you want as long as you havn't lost with them.

-No changing playbooks

-No nose tackle dive....if you want to be the nose tackle on defense, you cannot sack the QB within 2 seconds of the snap.

-If its an issue, then alternate who player #1 is(some people prefer going left to right).

-If the NES messed up during gameplay, then we'll replay the game but try our best to artificially get to the same time left with the same team with the ball at the same spot and leading/trailing by the same amount.

-Obviously first team to eliminate all of opponent's teams wins.



I honestly havn't touched this game in over 2 years. I give you my word on that. I did used to be very good in college though, and I'd practice a bit before we did this.

[bmxicle]

I've basically won a 10k prop bet where my friend had to win 90k in one month at 5/10nl and below. He was starting alot of his play at 1/2nl. I say basically won cause he is down money, and only has like 6 days left...so even though it was basically a lock from the start imo, now its even more of a lock.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

Assani, there are ways to play Tecmo Bowl online vs other people, but it takes some legwork.

nobody ever took my NHL 94 bet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Howard Treesong]

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Im up for a prop bet involving taco bell. I bet X dollars that I can eat Y dollars worth of food.

X and Y are up for negotiation. I set Y in the range of like $50

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i'll bet up to $200 that you can't eat $50 worth of taco bell in one sitting

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I offered my friend this bet a McDonalds with my only condition being he couldn't buy the salads. He gave up after $25 worth of food because he said he had no chance to finish the bet.

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Can this be gamed with an exchange rate or by going to a superexpensive McDonalds such as one in London?

[Aloysius]

Assani - thanks for your input.

15 FT attempts a minute feels on the high side when you factor in small rest breaks or slow-downs over the half hour (I think he'd need to at points during the half hour). So let's say 13 and at 70% makes (I agree with you, my initial 80% is way too high, I could actually see due to fatigue it being less than 70%) it's around 273 made for the half-hour. At 60% level it's 234.

I still feel pretty comfortable with an even money line of ~240 - I'll post results after it goes down, will be interesting to see how it turns out.

-Al

[tuq]

Assani,

Good analysis, I suggested to Al that he PM you given your background.

However, I too think your 15/minute is high, partly because there's only two balls and two people in play, so you could clank one here or there and not get them in your hand to maintain that average. That's a shot every four seconds. In my breakdown I thought a shot every 5-6 seconds was reasonable (so, 10-12/minute). Although the pre-shot routine will be tossed out the window, there is still the necessity to square and use proper technique. Between getting the ball and executing the shot and repeating this for 30 minutes, my guess is 15 shots/minute is simply not reasonable without negatively impacting the FT%.

Also, I mentioned to Al that if it's the guy that was proposing it then to beware, he knows what he's doing. It reminds me of Nick Rainey and the racquet/throw tennis prop bet.

[Los Feliz Slim]

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Also, I mentioned to Al that if it's the guy that was proposing it then to beware, he knows what he's doing.

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That was my feeling as well, unless the guy is a total blowhard. 240 at even money sounds good to me, but I don't think Al is getting a huge edge or anything.

[eviljeff]

would like to see some discussion of a "how much can you urinate in one day" prop bet

[midfielderdave]

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This is nearly the very first enumeration problem-- using generating functions to look at 0-1 strings. A basic probability course would be fine, too. You need to know how many tosses. (and a good look at the coin)


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It's very possible to learn how to flip a coin to make it land on one side much more often than the other.


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ermmmm i don't know about that, but it IS very easy to learn how to feel what side of the coin is facing up, then throw it in the air and make it appear like its flipping when it actually is not.

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The Real Hustle Coin Flip