25-50 with a straddle

[Ship Ship McGipp]

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8800 in pot. bet is 3500. So...if you call, you're risking $3500 to win $4400. Instead, why not raise to like $7500? Then you're risking $7.5k to win $12.3k. Is this guy ever going to call a river raise to chop on that board?

I actually like folding the best but fold > raise > call imo.

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at the risk of sounding like an idiot and alienating really good posters, i'm going to say that i really really dislike this. i can't imagine him ever folding a king to a 4k raise, i know i would never fold a king to a 4k raise from a thinking player, i dont' think anyone should ever fold a king to a 4k raise, ev en if it is just calling to chop.

if you're going to raise, i think it should be a man raise to try and rep AK (given it's a little hard, it would still be hard for him to call 10 or 15k more with just a king) given he's rarely got AK himself.

i'm not thinking about the math here but intuitively it feels pretty bad to raise small here, better to raise big if we have to raise, but i still like folding better than that, and perhaps even calling better than putting in any raise at all.

i'll be honest, i'm kidn of shocked so many people think it's good to raise small here, i guess maybe i'm out of my mind or something.

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Wasn't this predicated on folding a board chop, not a K chop?

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it was after i re read the hand

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

I think you played hand fine, I like check-call on the flop and most will probably agree.

[IHE]

I dislike raising the river in this situation. Small raise to 7.5k doesn't improve our odds against a straight chop much (38% vs 44% for calling). So even if he always folds a chop its not much better than calling. Also, as Jason mentioned this player may not fold a straight chop, and there is a small chance of a rebluff. Finally, by raising you are risking more, so a misread in villain's hand range (ie we grossly underestimate how often he has a king) will cost more.

rock,
I think you played the hand well. But just betting the flop in this situation may be better since letting a tough player have a strong idea of your narrow hand range in this situation (and them having position) can make the future streets much tougher to play correctly. Also, depending on the dynamic in this game, it is probably not that likely that Jason will just fire with any 2 cards on the flop since it is 3-way.

[whitelime]

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I dislike raising the river in this situation. Small raise to 7.5k doesn't improve our odds against a straight chop much (38% vs 44% for calling). So even if he always folds a chop its not much better than calling. Also, as Jason mentioned this player may not fold a straight chop, and there is a small chance of a rebluff. Finally, by raising you are risking more, so a misread in villain's hand range (ie we grossly underestimate how often he has a king) will cost more.

rock,
I think you played the hand well. But just betting the flop in this situation may be better since letting a tough player have a strong idea of your narrow hand range in this situation (and them having position) can make the future streets much tougher to play correctly. Also, depending on the dynamic in this game, it is probably not that likely that Jason will just fire with any 2 cards on the flop since it is 3-way.

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I haven't done the math but I'll assume your %'s are correct. Your argument is flawed because EV isn't calculated in terms of %'s, but rather $'s. If you see a +EV play in the form of a 51-49 coinflip in your favor, you'd rather bet $20k on it than $10k.

Note that I actually think calling and raising are -EV so actually folding > calling > raising. However, using whatever reads/logic Strass has behind calling, I'm pretty sure there are amounts we can raise to that make raising more profitable than calling. I understand sometimes, he calls to chop and sometimes he rebluffs us, but not often enough to make raising worse than calling, assuming calling is +EV.

[SlowHabit]

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o ok main idea of my post was to try and say that i hate it, i'm pretty sure most think a fold is best here anyways, looking at other options and small raise just struck me as ridic

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I like whitelime's post because it's not something I can come up with on my own.

[SlowHabit]

Strassa,

I am curious on why you didn't bet the turn. Judging from the pre-flop action, anything with a 10 that the hedge fund guy is re-raising with connects with that flop well enough for him to bet the flop (maybe except A10 and 910. But you have the other two nines so 109 is a harder combo for him to have).

When he chose to check-call that flop, his range screams more of AA/KK/smaller pocket pairs/suited connectors than QQ/JJ/any hand with a 10 and a face card. I think with a 10 and a facecard (and sets and straights), he would continue the pressure and bet that flop.

Or did you check behind the turn because irock1 check-called quickly the flop and you didn't know what he has and just checked behind on the river hoping to fill up (or play it as a bluff-catcher)?

FWIW, I don't like the turn check because whatever the river is, it's too hard to get any value out of his holdings. I could be wrong but please enlighten me [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[IHE]

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I dislike raising the river in this situation. Small raise to 7.5k doesn't improve our odds against a straight chop much (38% vs 44% for calling). So even if he always folds a chop its not much better than calling. Also, as Jason mentioned this player may not fold a straight chop, and there is a small chance of a rebluff. Finally, by raising you are risking more, so a misread in villain's hand range (ie we grossly underestimate how often he has a king) will cost more.

rock,
I think you played the hand well. But just betting the flop in this situation may be better since letting a tough player have a strong idea of your narrow hand range in this situation (and them having position) can make the future streets much tougher to play correctly. Also, depending on the dynamic in this game, it is probably not that likely that Jason will just fire with any 2 cards on the flop since it is 3-way.

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I haven't done the math but I'll assume your %'s are correct. Your argument is flawed because EV isn't calculated in terms of %'s, but rather $'s. If you see a +EV play in the form of a 51-49 coinflip in your favor, you'd rather bet $20k on it than $10k.

Note that I actually think calling and raising are -EV so actually folding > calling > raising. However, using whatever reads/logic Strass has behind calling, I'm pretty sure there are amounts we can raise to that make raising more profitable than calling. I understand sometimes, he calls to chop and sometimes he rebluffs us, but not often enough to make raising worse than calling, assuming calling is +EV.

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Yes, the first part of my argument isn't truly sound. But the second part relates to $, since I did mention that if our second point, if you're wrong on the 51/49 which turns out being 55/45, then you lose that much more when more money is involved. So in this spot where it is hard to really get a really accurate breakdown of his range (its not like we could narrow his range to just 1-2 hands like against a weaker player), we're more prone to make a big error by raising, especially if its a real raise.

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

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Strassa,

I am curious on why you didn't bet the turn. Judging from the pre-flop action, anything with a 10 that the hedge fund guy is re-raising with connects with that flop well enough for him to bet the flop (maybe except A10 and 910. But you have the other two nines so 109 is a harder combo for him to have).

When he chose to check-call that flop, his range screams more of AA/KK/smaller pocket pairs/suited connectors than QQ/JJ/any hand with a 10 and a face card. I think with a 10 and a facecard (and sets and straights), he would continue the pressure and bet that flop.

Or did you check behind the turn because irock1 check-called quickly the flop and you didn't know what he has and just checked behind on the river hoping to fill up (or play it as a bluff-catcher)?

FWIW, I don't like the turn check because whatever the river is, it's too hard to get any value out of his holdings. I could be wrong but please enlighten me [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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I think about this differently. If he holds KK or AA, then he is probably only calling one big potsized bet on this turn board. There is definitely a chance he has a straight. I think JJ checks this flop, he might have TJ, QJ, J8, whatever, I think there is definitely a non-zero chance he has a straight. If he CRs the turn after I bet, it can get really ugly. Plus if river blanks off I can get off a value bet easy. There are other variables obviously involved in this equation, but this is a pretty standard turn check from my perspective. If all the money goes in on the turn I'm in trouble. I want to see showdown. And its pretty unlikely it goes check bet call check bet call.... He will fold out AA or KK most of the time to that action--at least that is what I thought.


-Jason