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#41
10-08-2007, 08:19 AM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
Id fold or refuse to play the first time i double my money to the point where it is life changing. So whatever that figure would be.
For me it would be ~50k, as ive alread ywon the BBJ [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] 
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#42
10-08-2007, 09:15 AM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
In probability when you reproduce the same event more than once you get a multpilicative law. so there is a quitting time right? AA vs. KK Chance of All In Survival 1 81.26% 2 66.02% 3 53.65% 4 43.59% 5 35.42% 6 28.78% 7 23.39%................... [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but it's really hard to quit because each time you win your chance of winning the next one is still 81%. A good strategy might be to decide before you start to stop after 3 wins if you're not bust by then. Or 1 or 2 wins depending on how conservative you are.
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#43
10-09-2007, 07:30 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
technically speaking your only going to win about 8/10 in a row max before he busts you but you dont know when that is so its hard to say like "oh ill do it eight times then stop"
in my case id probably keep going til i bust then think of how retarded i am for not stopping when i was up so much money :]
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#44
10-10-2007, 12:38 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
If I have to put up 1K of my own money, I'm never agreeing to this. If you're staking me... [/ QUOTE ] I don't see the difference. After your first win, you will be risking some money which is yours. See my other post here. I think staking is the same as going on a gameshow with no money and thinking anything you are winning now is still not yours and making bad decisions with it.
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#46
10-10-2007, 04:45 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
LOL at the morons in this thread who can't straightforward answer a hypothetical. Personally I'd probably quit in in the 16-32K range. [/ QUOTE ] probably ... range ... morons? I'd stop somewhere in the 4-8k range, and i will get home to cross-check with my wife should I bet one or two times more next weekend.
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#47
10-10-2007, 04:47 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
Im doing it 4 times and then stopping. Luck will catch up otherwise!! I'll then take my 8,000 dollars, and go play som 5/10 NL!! Itd be a great day!!! [/ QUOTE ] ** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, Kh, 6h ] I'm sorry, unfortunately you have to get back to 0.05/0.10$ today
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#48
10-10-2007, 10:42 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, Kh, 6h ] I'm sorry, unfortunately you have to get back to 0.05/0.10$ today [/ QUOTE ] Why, you want to play against me? no time for that , sorry. But, since your math skilss are likely behind, ill explain why 4 times....the odds aces gave over kings are roughly 80-20, so 4-1. Once I beat kings the amount of times the odds say Ishould, im done. Not to mention, four flops in a row without a king, is fantastic!!! You keep going, and you go busto for sure. Do the math
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#49
10-11-2007, 03:59 AM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, Kh, 6h ] I'm sorry, unfortunately you have to get back to 0.05/0.10$ today [/ QUOTE ] Why, you want to play against me? no time for that , sorry. But, since your math skilss are likely behind, ill explain why 4 times....the odds aces gave over kings are roughly 80-20, so 4-1. Once I beat kings the amount of times the odds say Ishould, im done. Not to mention, four flops in a row without a king, is fantastic!!! You keep going, and you go busto for sure. Do the math [/ QUOTE ] That may be true but you could say that at any stage. What I mean is, that what has gone before has no bearing on the future. So once you have won 4 times in a row the next hand you will still be a 80% favorite. Every time you play the odds of winning that hand remain the same. And that is the dilema - we will all play until we are uncomfortable on losing depending on our personal circumstances. Some will quit on $2K and some on $5 Million. The math is irrelevant
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#50
10-11-2007, 05:07 AM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, Kh, 6h ] I'm sorry, unfortunately you have to get back to 0.05/0.10$ today [/ QUOTE ] Why, you want to play against me? no time for that , sorry. But, since your math skilss are likely behind, ill explain why 4 times....the odds aces gave over kings are roughly 80-20, so 4-1. Once I beat kings the amount of times the odds say Ishould, im done. Not to mention, four flops in a row without a king, is fantastic!!! You keep going, and you go busto for sure. Do the math [/ QUOTE ] That may be true but you could say that at any stage. What I mean is, that what has gone before has no bearing on the future. So once you have won 4 times in a row the next hand you will still be a 80% favorite. Every time you play the odds of winning that hand remain the same. And that is the dilema - we will all play until we are uncomfortable on losing depending on our personal circumstances. Some will quit on $2K and some on $5 Million. The math is irrelevant [/ QUOTE ] Agree, except I think that math is always relevant. This problem is same as e.g. when to excercize your stock options (should actually be easier as the things are much easily quantified). You're always favorute to wait as much as possible before excersize because expectation is that value will raise. But at some point, the risk goes higher than what you can affort to risk and you sell. You can basically compute that based on several assumptions (what is the current value of your assets etc)
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