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#271
05-11-2005, 02:09 AM
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Re: DERB
Yeah this is all standard basic statistics, so over this sample size 5% is more than reasonable. To do it out perfectly you'd need his standard deviation (which I guess whoever datamined this rediculous amount of hands has) but isn't the regular standard deviation for these games about 16 BB?
Also...didn't people figure out in previous posts that 95% confidence interval was around an average of 180K hands? or was that 99...Too dead tired to do it right now, I'll just read what NLsoldier posts... Says something about my mentality that I'm too bushed to do basic statistics, yet i'm on the 2+2 forum typing away...Sweeeeet 
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#272
05-11-2005, 02:14 AM
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Re: DERB
5% would mean one in 20, so we'd be seeing a lot of other people playing like derb and making 3bb/100 if that were true. And that's assuming derb is a break even player, from what James says it sounds like he should be losing substantially, not breaking even.
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#273
05-11-2005, 02:20 AM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
5% would mean one in 20, so we'd be seeing a lot of other people playing like derb and making 3bb/100 if that were true. And that's assuming derb is a break even player, from what James says it sounds like he should be losing substantially, not breaking even. [/ QUOTE ] I think you should take a course in statistics! Edit: sorry, that was snotty of me. To say that there is 5% chance that DERB is a break even player is not the same as saying that 5% of all break even players will win this much over 100K hands. It is a particular estimate based on his sample.
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#274
05-11-2005, 04:33 AM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
They aren't ignoring the hard numbers. The numbers tell you that there is a 95% chance that he is a winner. Lots of people play the 30/60, he seems to be a lottery winner, that 5% one. Even if you put his stats into 99% or 99.99% confidence intervals the argument is still valid. [/ QUOTE ] Math is hard. The numbers don't say there's a 95% chance he's a winner. They say something else entirely. When you start asserting that he's a lottery winner, the question then becomes: "How do we know that James isn't the lottery winner?" - Andrew www.pokerstove.com
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#275
05-11-2005, 04:45 AM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] They aren't ignoring the hard numbers. The numbers tell you that there is a 95% chance that he is a winner. Lots of people play the 30/60, he seems to be a lottery winner, that 5% one. Even if you put his stats into 99% or 99.99% confidence intervals the argument is still valid. [/ QUOTE ] Math is hard. The numbers don't say there's a 95% chance he's a winner. They say something else entirely. When you start asserting that he's a lottery winner, the question then becomes: "How do we know that James isn't the lottery winner?" - Andrew www.pokerstove.com [/ QUOTE ] Because James can look in his database and see himself outplaying this guy hand after hand? Because James' stats are generally in alignment with the vast majority of winning poker players? Because James has undoubtedly maintained his success far longer than 100k hands? Shall I continue?
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#276
05-11-2005, 04:52 AM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] They aren't ignoring the hard numbers. The numbers tell you that there is a 95% chance that he is a winner. Lots of people play the 30/60, he seems to be a lottery winner, that 5% one. Even if you put his stats into 99% or 99.99% confidence intervals the argument is still valid. [/ QUOTE ] Math is hard. The numbers don't say there's a 95% chance he's a winner. They say something else entirely. When you start asserting that he's a lottery winner, the question then becomes: "How do we know that James isn't the lottery winner?" - Andrew www.pokerstove.com [/ QUOTE ] Because James can look in his database and see himself outplaying this guy hand after hand? Because James' stats are generally in alignment with the vast majority of winning poker players? Because James has undoubtedly maintained his success far longer than 100k hands? Shall I continue? [/ QUOTE ] If you like. Of course, the only difference is how big the lottery is. Maybe James is the one in a billion (or trilion, etc...) luck bucket? - Andrew www.pokerstove.com
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#278
05-11-2005, 05:00 AM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] They aren't ignoring the hard numbers. The numbers tell you that there is a 95% chance that he is a winner. Lots of people play the 30/60, he seems to be a lottery winner, that 5% one. Even if you put his stats into 99% or 99.99% confidence intervals the argument is still valid. [/ QUOTE ] Math is hard. The numbers don't say there's a 95% chance he's a winner. They say something else entirely. When you start asserting that he's a lottery winner, the question then becomes: "How do we know that James isn't the lottery winner?" - Andrew www.pokerstove.com [/ QUOTE ] Because James can look in his database and see himself outplaying this guy hand after hand? Because James' stats are generally in alignment with the vast majority of winning poker players? Because James has undoubtedly maintained his success far longer than 100k hands? Shall I continue? [/ QUOTE ] If you like. Of course, the only difference is how big the lottery is. Maybe James is the one in a billion (or trilion, etc...) luck bucket? - Andrew www.pokerstove.com [/ QUOTE ] Lets add to James hand total the hand totals of 10 or 20 other top notch 2+2ers who share similar stats and winrates. Average of say 500,000 hands apiece, will give us 5 million hands. I think you are going to need to come up with a number bigger than trillion.
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#280
05-11-2005, 05:06 AM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Math is hard. The numbers don't say there's a 95% chance he's a winner. They say something else entirely. [/ QUOTE ] Could you expand on this? I would like to learn. [/ QUOTE ] There are essentially two numbers to consider, the win rate and variance. Of course, JV hasn't actually supplied the variance, so even the basic results are a bit tenuous. UprightCreature posted some very basic numbers which say that getting DERB's results over that stretch for a break even player is maybe a one in a million event. Now consider the fact that DERB is not alone in these achievements. We aren't talking about some guy that just got lucky. - Andrew www.pokerstove.com
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