pair + draw vs spewtard

[SlowHabit]

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preflop I was thinking JJ+, AK. On the flop when he pounded a PSB at the pot I strongly felt that AK was on the lower part of his range and I had next to zero fold equity. Against players with wider 3b ranges, I'd obv just c/r commit or jam whichever I'm in the mood to do at the time.

So figuring I had no fold equity I check/called the flop. Turn was another 4. I checked and he shoved. I folded.

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I cried inside [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[fsuplayer]

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I'm not HSNL but quick thought. Equity is awesome vs his range and usually w/ 10 outs its OMG jam but only a hand like this doing a crai quick math says he needs to fold ~30% of the time to make it correct. I doubt for a guy that has never 3bet yet AK makes up a third of his range and hes prob never folding JJ+.

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Can you show the math where he has to fold more than 30%?

I got a number much smaller than this.

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i havent done any math for this but i would be shocked if it were that high(30%).

[RiverFenix]

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Can you show the math where he has to fold more than 30%?

I got a number much smaller than this.

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Could be wrong and is slight dif w/ blinds but
Pot 12k if both ai * 40% eq = 4.8k
5500 more - 4800 = 700
700 to win 1075+1050

[SlowHabit]

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Can you show the math where he has to fold more than 30%?

I got a number much smaller than this.

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Could be wrong and is slight dif w/ blinds but
Pot 12k if both ai * 40% eq = 4.8k
5500 more - 4800 = 700
700 to win 1075+1050

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Hmmm, you might be right but I don't want to confuse myself with more equations. Below is my calculation. Let me know if I miscalculated [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

If we check-shove and Villain folds, we win 2125.

If Villain read Hero's soul, then Hero lose .6 (5500) = -3300 and suck out .4 (6625) = 2650. Total EV for check-shove is -650.

0 = 2125x + (-650)(1-x) ~ x = 23%

[jfish]

yawn, what fsu said.

[SlowHabit]

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Can you show the math where he has to fold more than 30%?

I got a number much smaller than this.

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Could be wrong and is slight dif w/ blinds but
Pot 12k if both ai * 40% eq = 4.8k
5500 more - 4800 = 700
700 to win 1075+1050

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Hmmm, you might be right but I don't want to confuse myself with more equations. Below is my calculation. Let me know if I miscalculated [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

If we check-shove and Villain folds, we win 2125.

If Villain read Hero's soul, then Hero lose .6 (5500) = -3300 and suck out .4 (6575) = 2630. Total EV for check-shove is -670.

0 = 2125x + (-670)(1-x) ~ x = 24%

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FMP.

[poker12]

.

[fslexcduck]

you guys must suck at math or something... this is such an easy check/shove... you do realize we're not in bad shape against overpairs, right? if we do get all in with 40% equity, so what? we pick up 2125 instead of risking losing that already sizable pot vs what could very very very easily be AK (and if we assume he plays AK this way with the same frequency as pairs, there are 20 combos of AK and 24 of big pairs, so it's really damned close)

[syndr0me]

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you guys must suck at math or something ... this is such an easy check/shove... you do realize we're not in bad shape against overpairs, right? if we do get all in with 40% equity, so what? we pick up 2125 instead of risking losing that already sizable pot vs what could very very very easily be AK (and if we assume he plays AK this way with the same frequency as pairs, there are 20 combos of AK and 24 of big pairs, so it's really damned close)

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4 x 4 = 20?

[TheWorstPlayer]

she was including AK suited