Very ugly spot w/ set vs. THE__D__RY in 50r

[Eagles]

Im not as thrilled about getting it in here as everyone but I still get it in

[Todd Terry]

Giving the 7 Villains random distributions of cards, the probability you're up against a made flush when the flop hits is around 26%. (I did an approximation by calculating for 1 player and multiplying by 7 and taking off a bit, but this is going to be damn close, and doing it exactly is a monumental pain in the ass). A non-random distribution which accounts for the fact that they called pre is undoubtedly slightly biased toward suited cards, so the true conditional probability is probably a bit higher. You should all keep this number in mind, because you'll often be faced with a situation where 8 people see the flop and you flop bottom set on a monochrome board.

Edit: I did it exactly with random cards for the 7 villains, the answer is 24.75652%.

[alifeLesson]

i dont like the flop bet at all. check the flop and evaluate. you should probably assume someone will take a stab at the pot with so many people in. try to get it in after a bet. if it checks around, bet a non-heart turn.

[fslexcduck]

ranges are VERY weighted towards suited cards... i ran some numbers and did some unspecified calculations, and my work shows that exactly 91.2% of donkeys in the world prefer J3s to T9o

so given that, you're up against a flush here way more than 26% of the time... like a ton of the time. i call and try to fill if i played it the way you did and c/f a brick.

[shaundeeb]

I check and let 4 people shove and hit a 1 outer for a 25k stack.

[fslexcduck]

and then ship 700 g's

[djk123]

the dry goes nuts in $300 rebuys, so not getting it in with a set vs him during the rebuy period would be criminal.

[Todd Terry]

[ QUOTE ]
the dry goes nuts in $300 rebuys, so not getting it in with a set vs him during the rebuy period would be criminal.

[/ QUOTE ]

You obviously didn't read his fascinating recent interview in CardPlayer magazine:


Shawn Patrick Green: First off, I want to put an end to this: Is your screen name pronounced The Dee Rye, as in “The Danny RYan,” or “The Dry”?

Danny “THE__D__RY” Ryan: The Dee Rye. Thank you, thank you. I’d really appreciate if you’d put that into the interview, because everyone thinks it’s The Dry. I would never pick a name like that. [Laughs]

SPG: That’s exactly why I asked, because as soon as I knew your real name I knew that it wasn’t meant to be The Dry, and I figured it must kill you that everyone calls you the wrong name. I just had to clear that up somewhere publicly. [Laughs]

[djk123]

i like the dry better