TPTK+GSSD Late in 14k G'ed - Everything tells me I'm beat, can I fold?

[SwingVelvet]

This player was fishy, but he became a nit for the last 20 or so hands playing veryyyy tight.

STACKS
Seat 1: (136,438)
Seat 2: SB (91,037)
Seat 3: (48,410)
Seat 4: (302,662)
Seat 6: Hero (147,679)
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t2000/t4000
(Ante: t500)
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t10000</font>, Button folds, SB calls t8000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t18500)</font>, BB folds.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t26500, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t14000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to t28000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero??</font>

Pot Size: 68,500

I'm thinking he's got 2 pair or better... however, it's so late in the tournament and this is such a huge pot, I also have nut outs. I don't know! Help!

[levAA]

I think this is a good spot where you should check behind on the flop.

As played I would call the mini-raise and reorientate on the turn. It's possible, that villain has set you on a c-bet - anyway you get great odds to call and have some outs.

[Pokerfarian]

With that sort've flop &amp; those stack sizes I like potting flop &amp; accepting that I'm committed with AK

[SwingVelvet]

[ QUOTE ]
With that sort've flop &amp; those stack sizes I like potting flop &amp; accepting that I'm committed with AK

[/ QUOTE ]

Y pot the flop if, like you say, you are already accepting you're committed to the hand??
wouldn't u bet less then to get some action, induce a bluff?

[jay_shark]

Betting the flop is good , as well as calling the mini raise .

[hamnegger]

id have checked this flop bc you dont know what to do if he raises. you should have thought about it BEFORE you bet thats the advantage of position,id fold as played

[JARID]

Since he is playing so nitty, what pf calling range do you put him on? I can envision a fish playing AQ this way, but yea you're f'd a lot of the time.

I like a check behind on the flop here too.

Jarid

[jay_shark]

True , checking the flop does seem better than betting but not always .

It depends on what villain may have called you with preflop as well as his postflop tendencies .

[BriPlay]

[ QUOTE ]
id have checked this flop bc you dont know what to do if he raises. you should have thought about it BEFORE you bet thats the advantage of position,id fold as played

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm agree 100% with this line.
brian

[SwingVelvet]

at the time i acted quickly,
i had a LAG image, and i quickly though, monster flop, fishy oponent, I bet!

maybe i should have thought more about the situation, put my oponent on a hand, and just check behind since i have nuts outs, it's a trny, and a raise would make me puke, in sklansky terms