NL 1/2 - Turned Nutz - trap or push?

[HoldEmNewby]

Hand seems kind of straight forward: You checked flop because you felt the flop really hit villains range, you hit your draw on the turn. We want villains stack he has $136 left there is $91 in the pot and its $40 to us to call. If we call pot will be only $121 and it'll be difficult to get villains remaining $136. I'd raise it small to say $100, he'll have a tough time folding the river for $76 more into a $251 pot - and may just push over your turn bet.

[ryang]

call turn, get it in on river, you could be calling this turn with all sorts of draws

[keikiwai]

checking this flop is a good idea

getting cred on the flop would be a catastrophe and it hit his range

[keikiwai]

i am very tempted to flat call the turn because when we raise, villain's first thought will be "AK"

also, we have position and w/ villain's bet size he'll either shove the river or we get to shove the river for $5 more than pot

[Acemanhattan]

[ QUOTE ]
i am very tempted to flat call the turn because when we raise, villain's first thought will be "AK"

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect reason TO raise, I dont think its so bad to Rep exactly what you have sometimes. Think of all the times you were bluffing repping one specific hand and you are saying to yourself "oh man o man hes gonna call, hell never belive I have AK here" That may be silly logic, but in this spot, I think hes much LESS likely to believe that you have AK on the turn, and is far more likely to be scared of it when a blank 2 peels off on the river, and you are gettin all the monies in.

[Hince]

[ QUOTE ]
i am very tempted to flat call the turn because when we raise, villain's first thought will be "AK"

also, we have position and w/ villain's bet size he'll either shove the river or we get to shove the river for $5 more than pot

[/ QUOTE ]

And when the board pairs and he shoves? Your reason for not betting the flop is that it hits his range hard. Then your reason for not raising the turn is that he'll put us on AK.

Exactly how much of his range is really folding to a turn raise that also will call a river push?

[POW9199]

[ QUOTE ]
checking this flop is a good idea

getting cred on the flop would be a catastrophe and it hit his range

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe his range goes further than the flop (most PPs, perhaps even AQ) and if he actually did hit the flop, which kind of hands reraise pf and check flop in position? O/c, the flop check is great for deception, but this is 1-2NL, not always the brightest opponents on these levels, even if he is a reg. I am not sure it would be enough to fold out marginal holdings on turn/river, then rather apply pressure from first moment, so you can avoid hero calls.

Obviously, when turning nuts, its just a matter of getting the right price, but playing this flop in general, i would bet 99 of a 100 times. Turn nuts, and i make a small raise or shove

[keikiwai]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
checking this flop is a good idea

getting cred on the flop would be a catastrophe and it hit his range

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe his range goes further than the flop (most PPs, perhaps even AQ) and if he actually did hit the flop, which kind of hands reraise pf and check flop in position? O/c, the flop check is great for deception, but this is 1-2NL, not always the brightest opponents on these levels, even if he is a reg. I am not sure it would be enough to fold out marginal holdings on turn/river, then rather apply pressure from first moment, so you can avoid hero calls.

Obviously, when turning nuts, its just a matter of getting the right price, but playing this flop in general, i would bet 99 of a 100 times. Turn nuts, and i make a small raise or shove

[/ QUOTE ]

my point is you have to fold to a flop cr, and that sucks w/ a draw to the nuts

[shpanko]

I'm almost never c-betting this flop vs this guy, when a pretty tight TAG calls a reraise OOP he usually has a pretty good hand barring significant history, and that range is hitting this flop pretty well, I'm taking the free card on the flop almost always.

If he checks the turn then I'm definitely betting because we can fold out 88/99 and maybe JJ.

As for the turn, I don't like raising b/c I feel like it turns our hand face up, still this guy is going to have a set a lot and he's not folding it so just go ahead and raise, if he's good at hand reading though he should be folding TT, but nobody folds sets.

[billybeartku]

I don't bet the flop as this kind of flop hits my opponent pretty bad. As played, I call the turn and get it in on the river. If you raise there, you just turned your hand face up and he won't pay you off light.