How often are my kings good here?

[Dr_Doctr]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $0.77
UTG+1: $18
Hero: $08
Button: $70
SB: $50
BB: $75

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($5.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($13.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($27.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $22.5</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $22.5 returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: $27.75


Villian has just joined table so no reads.

(something wrong with stack sizes - effective 50 - irrelevant anyway)

[traxamillion]

i'd bet turn here a bit more to set up a psb river shove. This line from villain is generally a monster scared to lose value when u check behind; since he limp called preflop i think it would be safe to pitch.

[Jauron]

Smells like the 5 with no reads.

[ICMoney]

What kind of 5x hand is he open limping with?

He's not calling you CB and TCB with a GS.

If anything I'd say 66, AT or some fishy JJ.

You need to be good 1/3 of the time. I'd say KK is good here 50%.

As played, I'm not folding river.

[willyc]

I can't really put him on anything, so I would probably look him up here.

Anyway, whatever he has he seems to have played it pretty badly... such a weird line. If you really want to lay it down I'm sure you'll get at least a few more chances to take this guy's chips... so I don't hate the fold here.

[traxamillion]

hes getting closer t0 2:1 than 3:1

[Dr_Doctr]

Thanks for the comments - I thought my fold was ok but I find you have to account for random play and it's difficult to figure out how much a lot of the time.

[Shattered]

I'm a station so I call here, but I would like my call nonetheless. Like, what does he have that beats us exactly? 5X? That would be ridiculously awful flop play. 79 or 74? Equally awful. Remember, this could also be T8 or something.
You can tell from this hand alone that villain is almost certainly terrible. Stuff that beats us is 5s (wtf), straights (more wtf), and sets. We beat worse two pairs and at least 15% (maybe closer to 25-35) random donkey crap that we crush. The only possible holding that he could have that actually makes sense is 88, and if that gets shown down against you kudos to him: Make a note that he's not as bad as the hand suggests.
That said, I can understand a fold against an unknown as calling is embracing variance for thin value, but I think it's giving up EV.

[vixticator]

Looks like a bluff. I can't put him on anything other than slowplayed TT, 55, 66 that you lose and most people c/r turn with those. So, IMO call.

[NL Newbie]

56s, 88, all i really see and sets

So your good 33% imo.