KK 4 handed in a Satellite

[SossMan]

Top 2 get 10k seats + $300, 3rd is $1k, 4th is $800

Blinds 2k-4k

CO (30k)
Hero on Button (90k)
SB (100k)
BB (50k)

I have been using the minraise to chip up nicely since we have gotten 6 handed. We are now down to 4 and minraise is stealing blinds a little better than half the time.

I pick up KK on the button. CO folds, I minraise to 8k.
Both blinds call, which is a little unusual. CO is wacky, but the blinds tend to play pretty normal.

Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I don't have the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pot is 24k.
Stacks are
SB 92k
BB 42k
Me 82k

checked to me and I bet 20k. SB takes his time and flat calls. BB folds.

Turn is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for a board of

7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB jams pretty quickly for my remaining 62k. It sure felt like he was jamming no matter what came on the turn. But I can't be sure of it.

Call or fold?

[JohnFR]

Would it be bad to assume his range is, A9,AT,JT,TsTx,JsJx,QsQx,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,Asx(where x is T,J,Q,K),KsQs,KsJs,QsJs. I don't have pokerstove at work so I can't come out with the winning percentages on this range, but I can't imagine it being better than 60/40 in our favor. I can't imagine he called preflop with T9,56,J9 if you think he is a normal player and you are the only person at the table that could really really hurt him.

Man even whenever he has a good hand for us(Asx) he still has 12 outs, and whenever he has something like TsT or JsJ he has 16 outs and 13 outs respecively.

We are definately getting goods odds, but I have to figure we will be out of the tourney around 50%(I give him at least a 50% shot of winning, even though the range I put him on I am better than 60% to win, because I think hands that are beating us are pushing more often than the hands we are ahead of). If we call and win I would say we are almost garaunteed a seat, so 50% of the time we win, 50% of the time we are out.

If you fold you are still 50% bigger than 3rd, and 2x 4th. I would probably take my chances and fold, and try to chip up by open pushing when the blinds get to 3k/6k.

Cheers!
John

[JohnFR]

Also in a satellite I think that if you assume if you win this hand you are 100% to make it and of course if you lose you are 100% not to make it, you can ignore pot odds, because then it solely becomes a mission in figuring out how often you are still in after the hand and how often you are out.

[wizard]

That board sure had gotten ugly. The blinds may just be tired of being mini-shoved and are standing up so I would think that their range would be very large. As tuff as it is, I think you should fold. Your skill is sufficient to still win yourself a seat in a position that is not as risky.

[MLG]

TBH, I would have checked the flop. If I bet it would have been smaller, like 12k-15k. Now you are in a gross spot, and basically have to guess at whether or not the SB understands sats.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
TBH, I would have checked the flop. If I bet it would have been smaller, like 12k-15k. Now you are in a gross spot, and basically have to guess at whether or not the SB understands sats.

[/ QUOTE ]

My instinct was to get the hand over with on the flop with the drawlicious board.

Also, I know it's easy to say that the minraise preflop got me into a pickle, but it was stealing so effectively that I thought changing it up would look odd.

I ended up folding since I couldn't put him on a range that I felt was better than my chances of winning the seat anyway.

[MLG]

Soss,
fold seems fine. Here's the thing with the flop bet. If you bet 12k, you can sometimes get the SB to fold (which he should to a lot) and the BB to push with a worse hand thinking he has FE, whish is like the dream scenario for you, because that basically locks up a seat for you the majority of times when you win the hand. When you bet 40% of the BBs stack he is going to rightly wimp out and fold most of the hands you dont mind playing a pot with.

Did you get the seat?

[SossMan]

Yeah, that makes sense about the BB's stack size. Good point.

I bubbled the seat after losing two races that played themselves (I reraise jam w/ AK, lose to JJ, I call AI as shorty w/ QQ, lose to AK)