Chipleaders Clash 4-left. $12/180 FT

bata2 · #1 11-25-2007, 02:22 PM

PokerStars $12/180 turbo, Big Blind is t6000 (4 handed)

Hero (t84335)
UTG (t107022)
Button (t46603)
SB (t32040)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t106422, 2 folds, Hero checks?

Villain has been super agro since we've got shorthanded, doubling his stack twice on marginal holdings. He took the chip lead from me in the last orbit. At the time this hand was played I both expected this steal and perceived it to be weak prior to beeing dealt AK.

Some quick EV math: EV(fold) 378$. EV(call-win) 504$ EV(call-lose) 158$..... turns out that we need to win 57.2% of time for this call to be break-even.

Given a read that he is pushing Tight 88+,AJs+,AQ+ we have about ~50% equity.
Given a read that he is pushing Light we have about ~57% equity.
Given a read that he is pushing Lighter we have at least ~60% equity.

So,
How strong must a read be here, for you to call this push?
Would you take a slightly -EV or breakeven gamble for ~64% chips in play?
Would you pass a slightly +EV gamble that has ~40% chance for you to bust 4th with 2 shortstacks left ? Thoughts?

ssnyc · #2 11-25-2007, 02:30 PM

are you serious? you are 4 handed in a turbo...this can be anything from 22 to A 4 off...you call and are very happy regardless of the results

bata2 · #3 11-25-2007, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
are you serious? you are 4 handed in a turbo...this can be anything from 22 to A 4 off...you call and are very happy regardless of the results

[/ QUOTE ]

I can do that. Sure.
Or, I can put in some thought in order to maximize value.

ssnyc · #4 11-25-2007, 02:47 PM

I spend a lot of time at these 180 final tables...they are mostly autopilot spots...think all you want but my suggestion is based upon many many many hours of experience...you all love to run numbers but folding in this spot is just silly unless the extra couple of dollars is important to you

Wish · #5 11-25-2007, 03:36 PM

Easy call. UTG=CO 4 handed, and if anything he's going to be raising lighter than he normally would in the CO spot. With effective stacks of 14 BB villain is shoving any hand he's playing. The "tight" range you assign is not tight, it's preposterously nittish. He's likely open shoving any pair, most aces, many kings, any two broadway and decent suited connectors. Perhaps wider than that. Some villains will be bullying the table shoving top 70% or so (and you've already described him as aggressive), figuring that people more worried about moving up from 4th to 3rd than playing good, aggressive poker will be folding better hands to this raise (though I doubt in villain's wildest dreams he thinks he's going to get somebody holding AK to fold preflop).

Pokerfarian · #6 11-25-2007, 07:23 PM

This isn't quite as super obvious unbelievably insta-snap call as it seems because cEV & $EV have diverged hugely if you need to win 57% of the time. But it's still an easy call because he's shoving so wide & thus your probably >60% favourite

Chesskid1 · #7 11-25-2007, 07:36 PM

if you take more than 1 second to call you are horrible at poker.

ssnyc · #8 11-25-2007, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you take more than 1 second to call you are horrible at poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

bata2 · #9 11-26-2007, 01:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't quite as super obvious unbelievably insta-snap call as it seems because cEV & $EV have diverged hugely if you need to win 57% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
True.
[ QUOTE ]
But it's still an easy call because he's shoving so wide & thus your probably >60% favourite

[/ QUOTE ]
I called and he turned Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

bata2 · #10 11-26-2007, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I spend a lot of time at these 180 final tables...they are mostly autopilot spots...think all you want but my suggestion is based upon many many many hours of experience...you all love to run numbers but folding in this spot is just silly unless the extra couple of dollars is important to you

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you. I've been playing them lots lately, and with fair success. I joined this board to improve, so i really value your input and would like to hear from you on my future posts.