Bodog DJIA Prop Bet

[thing85]

Bodog current offers the follow prop bet:


Bet On: What will be the Dow Jones Industrial average closing total be on December 31st 2007?

Over 13,600 Points -300
Under 13,600 Points +200

How could the under NOT be +EV? With close to zero analysis, I have to believe that the index, currently at 13,520 has a >33% chance of staying under by the end of the year.

For a reference point, the last contract for DJIA to be over 13,750 on 12/31 on InTrade sold for 45.5, or roughly +120. The last contract for over 13,500 sold for 55, or -122. According to these odds, the 50/50 mark is probably around 13,625 (this is a very rough estimate - do the math to get a precise #). With that in mind, I love under 13,600 for +200.

If someone wants to run some further analysis, feel free.

[CrushinFelt]

Definite value there. Probably best to look at futures markets as they are probably more efficient that whatever gambling site yuo're looking at ;p

[thing85]

I agree - I'm not familiar with futures markets however, so I didn't get a chance to look around.

[bills217]

lol - moved it to +150 and has a $50 max - not worth the effort for me. Still probably some value though.

[hogua]

FWIW, DJIA is currently below 13600.

[n2p]

This is a bet I hope to lose.

[dudeimstoked]

only +130 now.

[thing85]

Looks like this was pounded down. There still might be value at +130, however it's probably marginal.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like this was pounded down. There still might be value at +130, however it's probably marginal.

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?? Market is currently lower, if futures have it ~50/50 why pass up free 15% EV?

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like this was pounded down. There still might be value at +130, however it's probably marginal.

[/ QUOTE ]


?? Market is currently lower, if futures have it ~50/50 why pass up free 15% EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I maxed it at +200. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]