Rock Paper Scissors

[Poker Punk 9]

I won some money of this guy playing rock paper scissors. It was a weird situation so I was wondering what you guys think. The deal went like this first to 3 wins the bet. But, he starts with a 2 win lead. But, I was getting paid 10-1.

I didn't have much time to think about it but I was figuring that I'm going to win 1/9 times(if we assume we are equally skilled in rock paper scissors) and I was getting paid 10 to 1. Is my logical flawed in this scenario? Was this a good gamble on my part?

[jelly]

Your logic is fine, your numbers are not. You actually win one in eight, not nine, so your edge is even better. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[pzhon]

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Your logic is fine, your numbers are not. You actually win one in eight, not nine, so your edge is even better. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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No, someone playing optimally would have an edge (fair would be 7:1). The OP is not necessarily playing optimally, and may be exploitable. Someone who is offering such a prop bet probably has a significant advantage, such as being able to read and react to some players who broadcast how they will play, or knowing that the people don't throw rock 1/3 of the time.

[dkgojackets]

If OP picks his throw randomly though then that doesn't matter.

[hogua]

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If OP picks his throw randomly though then that doesn't matter.

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True, but that can be harder than it sounds...especially for a novice at the game. A pro, who'll offer the type of bet the OP mentioned, will know this.

Yes, there are RPS pros out there. Here's some info that can be used to protect yourself from them. (BTW, anytime some random person come up to you and offers a wager than sounds too good to be true, it usually is.)

Some of the top secrets to winning at at RPS — according to Graham Walker, Director of Management of the World RPS Society — are after the jump.
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1 - Rock is for Rookies
In RPS circles a common mantra is “Rock is for Rookies” because males have a tendency to lead with Rock on their opening throw. It has a lot to do with idea that Rock is perceived as “strong” and forceful”, so guys tend to fall back on it. Use this knowledge to take an easy first win by playing Paper. This tactic is best done in pedestrian matches against someone who doesn’t play that much and generally won’t work in tournament play.
2 - Scissors on First
The second step in the ‘Rock is for Rookies’ line of thinking is to play scissors as your opening move against a more experienced player. Since you know they won’t come out with rock (since it is too obvious), scissors is your obvious safe move to win against paper or stalemate to itself.
3 - The Double Run
When playing with someone who is not experienced at the RPS, look out for double runs or in other words, the same throw twice. When this happens you can safely eliminate that throw and guarantee yourself at worst a stalemate in the next game. So, when you see a two-Scissor run, you know their next move will be Rock or Paper, so Paper is your best move. Why does this work? People hate being predictable and the perceived hallmark of predictability is to come out with the same throw three times in row.
4 - Telegraph Your Throw
Tell your opponent what you are going to throw and then actually throw what you said. Why? As long as you are not playing someone who actually thinks you are bold enough to telegraph your throw and then actually deliver it, you can eliminate the throw that beats the throw you are telegraphing. So, if you announce rock, your opponent won’t play paper which means coming out with that scissors will give you at worst a stalemate and at best the win.
5 - Step Ahead Thinking
Don’t know what to do for your next throw? Try playing the throw that would have lost to your opponents last throw? Sounds weird but it works more often than not, why? Inexperienced (or flustered) players will often subconsciously deliver the throw that beat their last one. Therefore, if your opponent played paper, they will very often play Scissors, so you go Rock. This is a good tactic in a stalemate situation or when your opponent lost their last game. It is not as successful after a player has won the last game as they are generally in a more confident state of mind which causes them to be more active in choosing their next throw.
6 - Suggest A Throw
When playing against someone who asks you to remind them about the rules, take the opportunity to subtly “suggest a throw” as you explain to them by physically showing them the throw you want them to play. ie “Paper beats Rock, Rock beats scissors (show scissors), Scissors (show scissors again) beats paper.” Believe it or not, when people are not paying attention their subconscious mind will often accept your “suggestion”. A very similar technique is used by magicians to get someone to take a specific card from the deck.
7 - When All Else Fails Go With Paper
Haven’t a clue what to throw next? Then go with Paper. Why? Statistically, in competition play, it has been observed that scissors is thrown the least often. Specifically, it gets delivered 29.6% of the time, so it slightly under-indexes against the expected average of 33.33% by 3.73%. Obviously, knowing this only gives you a slight advantage, but in a situation where you just don’t know what to do, even a slight edge is better than none at all.
8 - The Rounder’s Ploy
This technique falls into more of a ‘cheating’ category, but if you have no honour and can live with yourself the next day, you can use it to get an edge. The way it works is when you suggest a game with someone, make no mention of the number of rounds you are going to play. Play the first match and if you win, take it is as a win. If you lose, without missing a beat start playing the ‘next’ round on the assumption that it was a best 2 out of 3. No doubt you will hear protests from your opponent but stay firm and remind them that ‘no one plays best of one for a kind of decision that you two are making’. No this devious technique won’t guarantee you the win, but it will give you a chance to battle back to even and start again.



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[MCS]

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True, but that can be harder than it sounds...especially for a novice at the game.

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So just find a source of randomness and use that. Plan out your first ten throws or whatever. I never play "serious" RPS, but I'll play anyone in the world if they give me 10/1.



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Yes, there are RPS pros out there.

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What?

[Tweed _Man]

You have got to be kidding me? Pro RPS?

That tip-list had me lol'ing

[hogua]

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You have got to be kidding me? Pro RPS?

That tip-list had me lol'ing

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No..not kidding.

Yes, Pro RPS.


That tip list is the real deal and not meant to be funny.

See link...

USARPS

[Siegmund]

Don't want to worry about a source of randomness?

This is a real handy reason to memorize the first 10 or 20 digits of pi or e. You will of course not ALWAYS start with the first digit mod 3, the second digit mod 3, etc... but unless you are going to play dozens of games against the same person, just picking "start from the fourth digit" or "work backwards from the tenth digit" or whatever is real handy to save you from thinking about each new play as it comes up.

[SamIAm]

These girls are "pros", but maybe not at RPS.

Probably NSFW

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