3/6 OOP with a plan

[Big_Jim]

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I like the way you're thinking, Sean, but as others have said, I think you get looked up pretty light, here, and you also have a lot of reverse implied odds to worry about.

Here's a little math:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.438% 17.70% 01.73% 740 72.50 { AsTd }
Hand 1: 80.562% 78.83% 01.73% 3295 72.50 { TT-55, AcKc, AJs, KJs, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 76s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, 76o }


Here's a pretty wide range with several hands where a lot of can be outdrawn, and a several that can get bluffed out.

Getting only 2.5:1, you need to make ~$150 on the river, playing just for your draw, as a 4:1 dog

Due to the reverse implied odds of hitting your A, and the poor implied odds of hitting a T, unless you think he'll value bet thin here and call a c/r with worse, some significant amount of the time for this to be +EV, by itself.

If you were relying on a pure bluff, you would be laying 356:231 or 1.54:1, and need him to fold ~60% of the time on the river.

Given the awkwardness of your line, I think you get looked up pretty light here, not to mention there are a lot of good hands in his range here that are definitely not folding.

A few decent scare cards can hit (KQ76), though.

Combining the two, your EV is ($356-$EVhit):$231

If we ignore implied odds:
EVHit = 0.2*$231
$356-($231*0.2):$231

You are laying: 1.34:1 on your bluff. which still needs to fold him out 57% of the time

Using a little Bayesian analysis, and some rough estimation, on the above range, I figure he folds to a river bet roughly 40% of the time, even with a lot of floats. That might be a bit generous, as it does involve him folding top pair sometimes, and floating 20% of the time.

In order to get odds favorable enough for this bluff to work, profitably, we need to lay 0.8:1
$356-EVhit = 231*0.8
$356-EVhit = 185
EVhit = $171

So, we need to make $171 on average, on the river, when we make our draw, for our bluff to be profitable. ~$45 of that comes from pot equity, so we need to make another $126 on the river, when we hit. If he's floating ~20% of the time, another $50 or so will come from that

Looks a lot closer now. Breaking down all the various river cases is probably necessary, to get a really accurate idea, but this is a complicated enough calc, and I'm already screwing it up, so I'm not gonna try it, ATM.

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FMP(?)

If there are any other errors in here, somebody else take over.

I should also note that there is a significant amount of rounding error in my calcs.