Flopped set gross river

Profish2285 · #1 11-18-2007, 01:19 PM

Only been sitting at table for a few orbits, so no reads on villain. He runs at 38/15/0.64 over 26 hands. I wanted to insta muck river but that tiny bet is giving me some amazing odds. Is this a missed flush draw often enough or is this an A pretty much always?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP ($48.25)
Hero ($51.35)
Button ($45.25)
SB ($50.95)
BB ($55.55)
UTG ($102.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.5, Button calls $2.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($8.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6, Button calls $6, UTG folds.

Turn: ($20.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button calls $14.

River: ($48.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $12, Hero....

Sniiii · #2 11-18-2007, 01:24 PM

That is one nasty river. You are getting odds here, but what is he betting out with here, that he has called you down on all streets with, that you beat? I'd fold this.

Pokey · #3 11-18-2007, 01:41 PM

Atch, the heartbreak of it all. You know this is a fold. You KNOW this is a fold. The guy is as passive as they come but he's woken up to bet this river. Maybe he's making a scared bet with his 33. Maybe he's trying to extract value with his Q4. Maybe he thinks you're splitting with his A9. Whatever it is, it beats you the overwhelming majority of the time. You obviously can't raise. Calling gives you 5-to-1 odds, so you only have to be best 17% of the time or so. With many players you could probably make that call as a VERY crying call. With this guy, I just don't see it as a profitable choice.

Now, I fully admit that your read is thin, but hey -- your hand just got completely torpedoed. Chalk it up to yet another loss from bad cards and bad position and fold.

Profish2285 · #4 11-18-2007, 01:45 PM

Yea I know its a fold and thats what I ended up doing. UGH, but the odds...

ClutchCity · #5 11-18-2007, 01:49 PM

Yeah, that's gross as hell. I don't think someone at this level is gonna bet the missed flush in that spot. Fortunately, you're a good enough player and didn't insta-call. Many others lose that last $12.

kav · #6 11-18-2007, 01:59 PM

Yeah, the odds are good but you have to fold. It has to be a missed flush at least one time in six for you to call and I don't think it is. Just fold and don't look back.