TT and flush draw

[Adam Stewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, if he has AA, no diamond, we are in BIIIIIIIIIIG trouble with 11 outs. And if he has AK, no diamond, we are in BIIIIIIIIIIG trouble with 75% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]



wow, that's great!!!


Now what about all the other hands that are in the villain's range?


AS

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, if he has AA, no diamond, we are in BIIIIIIIIIIG trouble with 11 outs. And if he has AK, no diamond, we are in BIIIIIIIIIIG trouble with 75% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]



wow, that's great!!!


Now what about all the other hands that are in the villain's range?


AS

[/ QUOTE ]


What i'm saying is, you don't know what he has. But against his range, getting 6-1, and with implied odds, basically 7-1, this is an easy turn call.

If you call, and river a flush, and bet, he's not folding a set, or a non diamond AA or KK.

There is just no way to know the strength of his hand. Sure, sometimes you are going to be drawing to 2 outs, some times 11 outs, sometimes you have the best hand.

All that said, you cant fold the turn because of all these factors.

Using your read, I'm not calling the river if he bets the flop, turn, and river. But I'm not folding the turn either.

[Adam Stewart]

[ QUOTE ]
getting 6-1

[/ QUOTE ]


This may seem like a nit, but it's a significant point.


There would be 5.5 big bets in the pot. Take away the rake and we're only getting just over 5:1.


Adam

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
People may hate this, but I think the turn is a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this, I think the turn is a really easy call. I think you are pretty close with about 6 effective outs, except I think its more like 7:

AA (no diamond -> 3 hands w/ 11 outs each)
AA (diamond 3 hands w/ 2 outs)
KK (no diamond 3 hands 11 outs)
KKd 3 w/ 11 outs
QQ 4 hands 9 outs
JJ 4 hands 9 outs
AdKd 1 hand 0 outs
AQ no d, 9 hands 9 outs
AdQ 4 hands 2 outs
AJ no d, 9 hands 9 outs
AdJ 4 hands 2 outs

~ 47 hands, 328 outs -> 7 effective outs.

I didn't check my math, but I think this is about right. Now, throw in the fact that he has AK (no AdKd) about 20% of the time, that he could have KQs sometimes, that he could have 88-99 about 5% of the time and this becomes a really easy call, IMO.

[jstill]

yay fun ... discrepency. i like when the responses aren't homogeneous. lets try to find the answer here:

so to call we need 8 outs worth of equity or 20% on avg to do so profitably getting 5:1

lets make two ranges, one tighter one looser and see

first range: 99+ AQo+ AJs+
vs 99 95% equity 6 combos
vs TT 60% equity 1 combo
vs JJ 18% equity 3 combos
vs QQ same as JJ
vs KK no diamond 25% 3 combos
vs KK with diamond 5% 3 combos
vs AA same as KK
vs AJs 25% 3 combos
vs AQ no diamond 25% 9 combos
vs AQ w/ diamond 5% 3 combos
vs AK no diamond 85% 9 combos
vs AK w/ diamond 65% 6 combos
vs AdKd 0% 1 combo

assuming he plays all of these hands the same (bets when ck'd to postflop). (which is i think roughly true, even AK no diamond TT or 99 no diamond will probably bet free-showdown the turn for all the times ur drawing or they can move u off Jx no diamond or whatever). We have far more than the 20% equity we need to profitably call getting 5:1 on the turn. The turn is a call vs the tight range, i wont do out the second model but im sure its a call as well.

second range: 77+ AJo+ ATs+ KQo KJs+

[jstill]

awww redeye beat me too it while i was doing it... JJ and QQ should only be 3 combos each tho but whatev, i didnt include AJo either and added a few lower PPs but I think both our outcomes show the turn is a definite call Adam S.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
awww redeye beat me too it while i was doing it... JJ and QQ should only be 3 combos each tho but whatev, i didnt include AJo either and added a few lower PPs but I think both our outcomes show the turn is a definite call Adam S.

[/ QUOTE ]


I can't believe how much time and effort people are putting into this. This is such an easy turn call, and c/f the river UI

[jstill]

i just wanted to end any debate. i was almost positive it would come out a not even close call.

it really doesnt take that long btw... 2 mins maybe?

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
i just wanted to end any debate. i was almost positive it would come out a not even close call.

it really doesnt take that long btw... 2 mins maybe?

[/ QUOTE ]


no, i'm not making fun of you for doing the math, I just think even with all your calculations, AS still thinks it's a fold. Even without math, it just looks like an easy call.

[jstill]

Adam theres no way u still think its a fold do u?

edit: I guess the only point of contention is whether he'd bet AK no diamond TT or 99 no diamond or with a diamond on the turn. Even if u only count all the AK no diamonds (9 combos) as one combo and leave out TT and 99 from the calculations it still comes back as a must call getting 5:1.