Standard value bet?

[hedgetop]

I find one of the most exploitable flaws of the 'tags' in my games is their near fanatical obsession to call down with A high irregardless of opponent. I find this and similar situations all too common.

Further, when a villain with this level of aggresion (normal) just calls down on this ragged flop I think we can fairly safely put them on A high (large portion of time) and without a re-raise preflop we can chop of the biggest aces.

I normally value bet this down to about AT which i think is my cut-off, I am curious what other think?


SB is 35/18/1.6 over 500 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 7 BB

[StaticShock]

I think betting AJ to the river here is a losing proposition over the long haul. As tempting as it is to fire away away and really try to earn the pot, you're going to get looked up too often by hands that beat you.

Also, I would characterize the villain in this hand as more of a calling station than a TAG. I've learned that trying to move these guys off of bottom pair _just_doesn't_work_.

EDIT: Don't you think he would have raised with an Ace instead of just completing?

[ST069]

I don't like that value bet too, for mostly the same reasons as Mrbig and Static. I have found myself in a lot of trouble with that kind of play in a 3handed game in the past. With so few people at the table you need them to fold more often then not. Don't give them too much reasons to call you. I prefer loose one value bet (especially with a A high) sometimes and have the possibility to win a pot on a busted draw that i 3barrels.

(excuse my really poor english)

[danzasmack]

Wait a minute, this is 3 handed? He's a 35/18? Is that being 3 handed or from before?

[MrBig30]

I think betting this river is a big loser in the long run. He is going to have a better hand most of the time if he calls.
Also, as pointed out the probability of him having a naked ace falls dramatically when he only completed preflop. 18% pfr surely means he raises this almost all the time unless you have a specific read otherwise.

Edit: Since he is fairly aggro maybe he would have bet this river with any pair, considering the low board. If you have the read he plays like that a valuebet might still be slightly +EV.

[danzasmack]

What ace hi doesn't he raise pf here?