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#61
11-05-2007, 05:10 PM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Kentucky -3 Vandy is much better at home, but come on. Kentucky is 9 points better on neutral according to Sagarin and they are coming off a bye week and have a lot to play for. Having just been upset at home and losing 3 of 4, they will not look past Vandy. I might add units on this later. [/ QUOTE ] Kentucky injury update: Rafael Little (notorious Vandy killer) and Keenan Burton will both play and be close to 100%. (This is the excellent and important news if you are a UK fan/bettor.) Tony Dixon (#2 RB) is questionable. Corey Peters (starting DT) also questionable. Other than that, the team is as healthy as it has been since early in the year, healthier than they were for the LSU game even. With the line down to 3 (I expected it to have moved the opposite direction after reading the injury news), and a couple units at 4 and 3.5, I'll probably be going >5 units in aggregate (yay Kelly betting). A healthy Kentucky is way better than Vandy (probably even more than indicated by Sagarin - Miss St. game was an aberration, even with Burton and Little both in street clothes), and homefield does not amount to that much in Nashville. UK coming off a bye week and Vandy coming back from a beating in the Swamp. All systems would appear to be go for a comfy UK win. Edit again: Calling for partly cloudy and 64 in Nashville Saturday, so at least at this juncture it doesn't look like weather should be a concern, either. 
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#62
11-05-2007, 05:18 PM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
Oddly enough, Kentucky against Vandy was my biggest CFB play last season as well (with UK +1 at home - a team that almost beat Tennessee on the road and blew out Clemson in the bowl game).
I would also consider Kentucky a likely game for Dr. Bob to be on, so middle opportunities may abound later in the week.
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#63
11-05-2007, 05:32 PM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
I agree completely with the KY rolls theory...Vandy has a solid defense but KY will beat them with their passing attack.
I thought UGA would be favored by 3...but no chance I bet this game...AU always plays tough in Athens...looks like it could be quite a game... would love to hear some opinions on UT/Ark match up...I believe Arky rolls...
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#64
11-05-2007, 05:39 PM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
2 other games I'm considering early:
Wake Forest @ Clemson -8 Alabama-4.5 @ MSU Clemson has looked very strong as of late, and their home field advantage is awesome. I think MSU is getting too much credence for that fluke victory over Kentucky. I can see 'Bama steamrolling in this one. Any opinions?
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#65
11-05-2007, 05:50 PM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Arizona St -6.5 This team doesn't strike me as the type that is going to mope about the Oregon loss. I think it's more likely that they take out their frustration on UCLA. I don't feel great about taking another road fave in the PAC10, but ASU is too good for this one to be close. [/ QUOTE ] I'd be careful there. UCLA's 3-1 at home this year with wins over Top-40 teams in Cal and BYU and the only loss coming in the fluky ND game where they were playing a 3rd-string QB. They still control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl too, so it's not like they shouldn't be motivated. If I had any play here, it would be on the UCLA moneyline.
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#66
11-05-2007, 06:03 PM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Arizona St -6.5 This team doesn't strike me as the type that is going to mope about the Oregon loss. I think it's more likely that they take out their frustration on UCLA. I don't feel great about taking another road fave in the PAC10, but ASU is too good for this one to be close. [/ QUOTE ] I'd be careful there. UCLA's 3-1 at home this year with wins over Top-40 teams in Cal and BYU and the only loss coming in the fluky ND game where they were playing a 3rd-string QB. They still control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl too, so it's not like they shouldn't be motivated. If I had any play here, it would be on the UCLA moneyline. [/ QUOTE ] I like UCLA here too, especially now at 7. See also: ASU v. Washington State. Whole forum on them at -9. You remember how that went - and ASU would have lost if not for a blown call. UCLA is considerably better than Washington State.
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#69
11-05-2007, 07:06 PM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
See also: ASU v. Washington State. Whole forum on them at -9. You remember how that went - and ASU would have lost if not for a blown call. UCLA is considerably better than Washington State. [/ QUOTE ] I believe Arizona State was -18 in their game at WSU. At any rate, I wanted to point out that UCLA's current starting QB (Cowan) was in the hospital with a collapsed lung as recently as 24 hours ago, and Ben Olsen is still out with a knee injury. By the end of the game against Stanford UCLA was going with their #3 QB- turned wide receiver-turned #3 QB (Ossar Rasshan). Unless I'm missing some updated news, all indications are that this character will still be under center for the Bruins this Saturday. ASU at -6 looks pretty good.
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#70
11-05-2007, 07:12 PM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Arizona St -6.5 This team doesn't strike me as the type that is going to mope about the Oregon loss. I think it's more likely that they take out their frustration on UCLA. I don't feel great about taking another road fave in the PAC10, but ASU is too good for this one to be close. [/ QUOTE ] I'd be careful there. UCLA's 3-1 at home this year with wins over Top-40 teams in Cal and BYU and the only loss coming in the fluky ND game where they were playing a 3rd-string QB. They still control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl too, so it's not like they shouldn't be motivated. If I had any play here, it would be on the UCLA moneyline. [/ QUOTE ] I like UCLA here too, especially now at 7. See also: ASU v. Washington State. Whole forum on them at -9. You remember how that went - and ASU would have lost if not for a blown call. UCLA is considerably better than Washington State. [/ QUOTE ] WSU beat UCLA by 20 so I wouldn't consider UCLA considerably better. They may be better at home, but they are still the team that has lost to Utah, ND, Wazzou and Zona by a lot of points.
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