EPT Barcelona, Bluffing and Catching bluffs

[mrjetguy]

Hand 2 I think depends on what was spades on the flop, if it was the A and J then A,K, and J of spades are all on the board. This hurts what you can rep somewhat with a river bet. I think I just let it go here and check down.

Hand 3 is solid if you are willing to keep it going on the river.

[NYWalker]

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Hand 1.

Early on in day 1, 2 to my left is TerrorOfSweden, aka TheTerrorist, aka Mohhamed Kouseri or some [censored] like that. In the first 2 levels he was playing batshit insane, like 90% vpip, never folded to rr preflop, overall just absolutely insane, calling most cbets.

Stacks are roughly 25k effectiveI raise K8ss to 450 at 75/150 in mp, ToS calls, bb calls. Flop is 467r, check, I bet 900, ToS calls. turn is a 4x. I check, he bets 1500 and I make it 4500.


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I like this play.
He's calling your c-bet on the flop with position planning to "Hijack" you on the turn if you check.

[adanthar]

hand 1: perfect turn card for that play. are you following through on a brick if he calls?

hand 2: meh nobody believes that on the Internet and he's from the Internet so I dislike it

hand 3: he's not from the Internet so he'll probably fold

hand 4: I fold cause even if he's bluffing a lot here it'll be very hard to call on so many rivers...and he'll probably be playing optimally on many of them too. blah, this is a sick spot.

hand 5: kinda like this one if you picked up a live tell, but if not, he's betting the wrong card for this call to be good. edit: actually, I changed my mind, live players don't think on that level so I like it period.

hand 6: it always seems like a good place to try it and then you always get called by queens. I've decided that when I do this, it's going to be with a better read than 'first hand of the day vs. some random scandi who put in 25% of his stack already'. note that nath is probably gonna love it.

hand 7: this is much much much worse if you showed 6 down than if you didn't.

hand 8: stack sizes matter but the gist of it is: folding here feels like the dumbest thing ever. it's also correct because his coldcall is such a "I'm trapping with a hand that doesn't wanna call a shove" move and he's so obviously hit this flop. it's never a bluff (I guess I should say almost never but I've never seen it once with that exact raise size) and for every time he has exactly 54 there's like a dozen AJ+'s. also, it matters if he can see your holecards.

[Stumpy]

Ansky,

I guess after you get more replies, can you explain what you were thinking on Hand 4?
In particular, what were you planning on doing on the river? (Or give river action?)
(Hand below with nerdy fake hand conversion and approx. pot sizes)

Hand 4
CO: Aggro / Active Guy.
Ansky: Chipleader with 90k. Quite handy with the ladies.

Preflop: Ansky is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, Ansky checks.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($3750, 5 players)
<font color="blue">CO Looks around at everyone, appearing to gauge their interest in the pot before betting</font>
2 checks, <font color="red">CO Bets 2500</font>, Button folds, Ansky calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($8750, 2 players)
<font color="blue">CO looks at Ansky for 5 seconds, looks at board.</font>
<font color="red">CO bets 7000</font>, Ansky calls.


I don't see how you'll get him to fold OOP on the river, and I can't see that you're ahead enough to call.
A check/raise on the turn seems pretty viable though. How many chips does he have?
You'll fold many better hands, and I can't see him trying to keep bluffing with anything you beat on the river.
If calling is reasonable, raising seems far better. If raising is suspect, then I think you need to fold.

He can be bluffing, but he's getting into the acting job if he is right?
I certainly wouldn't think a guy is bluffing if he stares at me and the board for a while.
You do that when the flush that just came out might have killed your hand.

[Ansky]

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don't see how you'll get him to fold OOP on the river,

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I'm not planning on it.

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and I can't see that you're ahead enough to call.


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I disagree, especially given the physical reads.

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A check/raise on the turn seems pretty viable though. How many chips does he have?
You'll fold many better hands,

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when u think someones range is polarized to bluff or big hand, check raising a marginal hand is about the worst thing you can possibly do. In this hand I was pretty sure he either turned a flush or was full of [censored] when he bet. I was fairly sure hed check behind bigger jacks on the turn, and almost as sure that hed check any &lt;2pr hand.

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If calling is reasonable, raising seems far better. If raising is suspect, then I think you need to fold.

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Well, this is pretty randomly thought up.

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He can be bluffing, but he's getting into the acting job if he is right?


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I have found they do this way more than you think.

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You do that when the flush that just came out might have killed your hand.

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Given that it was pretty obv I had a marginal hand, I felt that he wouldn't bet so big if he hit it huge on the turn. I would never make this assumption vs a good player who I have history w/, but this was just a random guy w/ a pokersite shirt on who was playing pretty active and prob had a lot of bet/live tells. I am not 100% sure on any of this, but I thought all of the above at the time.

[MLG]

i think I agree with steve on almost all points. I also think that you're being too harsh on stumpy, i agreed with most of what he said given his read of the villain being unlikely to have the flush.

[NYWalker]

Hand 2 - Good river bet. I probably bet more than 2K. Like 2500.

Hand 3 - Not a drawing board, why bet so much? Bet size saying "I have air, please fold." If he's really good, he would call you with TJ and check the river. Since you said he's a bad player, he would fold a Jack but may call with weak Ace.

Hand 4 - I call. If there is no spade at the river, bet out 20K or close to half of his stack (whatever is smaller).

[Stumpy]

MLG,
Does that mean you agree he doesn't have a flush often (based on tells), or just with that qualifier it doesn't sound terrible?

Ansky,
I would fold, but was mostly arguing that calling seemed like the worst option.

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If calling is reasonable, raising seems far better. If raising is suspect, then I think you need to fold.
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Well, this is pretty randomly thought up.

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Maybe it wasn't explained well, but given the bluff% I think he needs (from below) to call, and adding a good % of his range that would fold to a c/r, I think it is better than calling. This was before you said you don't think he bets anything less than 2 pair.


What was his stack size in this hand?
And can you give your river plan?
Seems like it has to be check/fold, but we haven't agreed yet. Certainly about 1/3rd of the deck is.


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I was fairly sure hed check behind bigger jacks on the turn, and almost as sure that hed check any &lt;2pr hand.

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Given that it was pretty obv I had a marginal hand

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If it's pretty obvious you have a marginal hand (that could contain a crappy spade) why wouldn't he bet big if he didn't have the flush, even with his weaker hands? Would you agree random live players tend to overprotect their hands, and a decent percentage do stupid things like bet big when a flush hits so that if they're raised they know they can fold?

Are you including sets, straights, two pair in his betting range, or just flushes?


What % of the time do you think he has nothing, and what % does he bet the river with his nothing?
He's got to be bluffing over 30% of the time just to give you immediate odds to call.

I stoved all unpaired hands weaker than A9o, and they're 17.5% to win against you.
So if he just checked behind on every river, he'd have to bluff the turn at least 36.5% of the time.

If he bluffs the river 25% of the time (25% of his turn bluff %) then you need him to be FOS 50% of the time to break even.

I said he wouldn't bluff the river much, but if you're making him a guy who bluffs into 4 people &gt; 50% of the time on the flop and then again on almost the worst turn, I think you need to assume he'll continue sometimes.

[MLG]

stumpy,
I'll defer to ansky's read since you he was there, however, in a vacuum i think the action described wouldnt lead me to believe he has a flush.