Probably the weakest ive ever played a big flop

[ronaldann]

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I think flop is OK. You need to call turn here though, as I think he's on some kind of draw very often A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] especially comes to mind.

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If we are going to call the turn bet, there is absolutely no idea just calling on the flop. Especially if he could have hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], which I doubt because he only minraised on the flop.

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What I meant is that calling flop is OK if you also call turn (it's a blank). When Villain RR turn to 80 he's committing himself. So a push is obv better as his range include all kinds of draws, some of which you actually beat when they hit (weaker flushes).

As played I don't fold turn, but I might have gotten it all wrong.

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Well, the thing is that I don't that think that villain has any draw because he made such a light reraise. The natural play would be to just shove. So if we push we get to see both streets and also get paid of when we hit. If villain has a made hand the optimal play for him, given that he knows our hand, is to wait for a blank turn card and then push all-in with a big enough bet so we don't have odds to call.

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Agree completely. Which is why pushing flop is better than calling. Calling the flop RR and then folding is awful.

[thatpfunk]

"Agree completely. Which is why pushing flop is better than calling. Calling the flop RR and then folding is awful."

with implied odds im getting ~7:1 to call the flop? lets say, on average i have 10 outs... why is this so bad if i can put him on a very slim hand range? call wth odds, safely fold the turn when miss or stack when hit. position helps too.

[blackize]

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If villain has a made hand the optimal play for him, given that he knows our hand, is to wait for a blank turn card and then push all-in with a big enough bet so we don't have odds to call.

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It looks like that is exactly what he is setting up. His flop min 3bet is a pretty strong move, but you see lots of two pair hands, sets, the infrequent AA, and other combo draws here. If we think the villain is thinking enough to try to get the pot big enough to be able to shove the turn then we have to push the flop.

I think just calling the flop sets you up to be pushed off a hand with a ton of equity and reduces your implied odds(he probably check folds to a club unless he has ATcc and maybe AcAx).

You've realistically got about 40% equity and given the size of the pot even before you call on the flop you have enough to push. It's somewhat high variance but this is a hand that I really want to get to showdown with. This range for him below is pretty tight, I think AcKx, AcAx and some other drawing hands are in his range as well as possibly K2s or J2s which only improve things.

12,870 games 0.005 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Jc 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.065% 37.95% 00.12% 4884 15.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 61.935% 61.82% 00.12% 7956 15.00 { KK, JJ, 22, KJs, KJo }

[Chubbers]

That flop bet is really bizarre. I'd be tempted to push this flop.

[blackize]

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with implied odds im getting ~7:1 to call the flop? lets say, on average i have 10 outs... why is this so bad if i can put him on a very slim hand range? call wth odds, safely fold the turn when miss or stack when hit. position helps too.

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I don't think his range is as slim as you do and I think he check/folds a club on the turn often enough to really limit your implied odds.

[ronaldann]

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"Agree completely. Which is why pushing flop is better than calling. Calling the flop RR and then folding is awful."

with implied odds im getting ~7:1 to call the flop? lets say, on average i have 10 outs... why is this so bad if i can put him on a very slim hand range? call wth odds, safely fold the turn when miss or stack when hit. position helps too.

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Well I don't think you'll be able to stack him all that often when you hit. Hero have TP+FD, calling the flop hoping to hit the flush (and fold when miss) is too weak. We're ahead of villains range here, and if turns out we're behind to a set/2p we're still in decent shape.

Pushing surely must be +EV.

[thatpfunk]

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with implied odds im getting ~7:1 to call the flop? lets say, on average i have 10 outs... why is this so bad if i can put him on a very slim hand range? call wth odds, safely fold the turn when miss or stack when hit. position helps too.

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I don't think his range is as slim as you do and I think he check/folds a club on the turn often enough to really limit your implied odds.

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what, on this board, is your range for an utg limper who lead-3 bets? he doesn't expect me to fold. hes very, very rarely doing that with Axcc, he doesn't have AK, he doesn't have a pr + FD, he cant have QTcc, so...?

and if he check-folds the turn im getting almost 4:1 on my immediate call. not to mention c-fing the turn would be a huge error vs me.

[Dan Bitel]

This hand is played perfectly.

LOL at any1 thinking a worse hand than KQ or any draw is in his range after he small bets/nearly min3bets the flop. It doesn't matter if pushing is +EV or not, because quite clearly calling is MORE +EV.

To be honest, i don't know if this dude would limp/call KJ UTG. If he doesn't, he pretty much has to have 22 here 100% of teh time.

Turn is a trivally easy fold

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Dbitel,

You don't think that this villain plays T9cc or ATcc like this? B3B is a pretty standard combo draw line, I don't see why we're discounting combo draws so much.

[ronaldann]

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It doesn't matter if pushing is +EV or not, because quite clearly calling is MORE +EV.



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How often do you think villain plays a FD like this? Close to never? You lose a ton of value when he does...