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  #11  
Old 10-06-2007, 04:34 PM
DrVanNostrin DrVanNostrin is offline
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Default Re: A modest improvement in winrate estimation after Poker EV..

[ QUOTE ]
I thought the Doctor's point was that the EV will miss the true EV calculations of hands where someone calls big bets but where the hands do not see showdown...

[/ QUOTE ]
That wasn't my point, but that is another flaw. Certain leaks would make your sEV too high, other leaks would make your sEV too low. My suggestion was to find the statistics that would be telling of those leaks and adjust accordingly.

An example:

Let's say you have AAcs and the board is 2c5d6d7d8d and a very passive player who never bluffs, bets. If you're playing for Sklansky bucks you should call because the amount you'll be refunded (due to your equity on earlier streets) is greater than the bet you'll lose by calling. A player who maximizes his sEV does not maximize his EV.

Calling too much on the river would make your sEV too high; it will also make your W$SD low. If you use both sEV and W$SD you'll have a better estimate of EV than you would using only sEV.

There are many other potential leaks that alter sEV. Finding statistics indicative of them those leaks would improve the model.
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  #12  
Old 10-11-2007, 02:51 AM
gameplay gameplay is offline
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Default Re: A modest improvement in winrate estimation after Poker EV..

where can i find the POKER EV? ty
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  #13  
Old 11-30-2007, 12:22 PM
donkeykong2 donkeykong2 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
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Default Re: A modest improvement in winrate estimation after Poker EV..

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought the Doctor's point was that the EV will miss the true EV calculations of hands where someone calls big bets but where the hands do not see showdown...

[/ QUOTE ]
That wasn't my point, but that is another flaw. Certain leaks would make your sEV too high, other leaks would make your sEV too low. My suggestion was to find the statistics that would be telling of those leaks and adjust accordingly.

An example:

Let's say you have AAcs and the board is 2c5d6d7d8d and a very passive player who never bluffs, bets. If you're playing for Sklansky bucks you should call because the amount you'll be refunded (due to your equity on earlier streets) is greater than the bet you'll lose by calling. A player who maximizes his sEV does not maximize his EV.

Calling too much on the river would make your sEV too high; it will also make your W$SD low. If you use both sEV and W$SD you'll have a better estimate of EV than you would using only sEV.

There are many other potential leaks that alter sEV. Finding statistics indicative of them those leaks would improve the model.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you should just ignore the sklansky bucks calculations and only adjust for all in luck, that s what troll did here i think?
if you could see your opponent's folded hands and their luck (flopped sets, hit straights etc.) you might be able to make further adjustments, but it s pretty difficult to quantify.
at least troll could show a decent decrease in the confidence intervall which is pretty useful information.
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