Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread

[iggymcfly]

OK, I guess Graunke's better than I thought. Considering how much of his previous work came against Charleston Southern though, his numbers weren't good at all coming into today. I still think I've got a great shot to win both the ML and the spread BTW.

Edit: My initial post was before you turned your very short post into a very long post. Anyway, I didn't realize that Graunke looked good last year. I knew he had some bad games this year and figured the drop-off would be significant.

I still think Nevada +6 was the right side though. Brennan's injury still has to be worth at least a point and a half, the HFA is probably worth 6 or 7, and the scheduling (Nevada coming off a bye, Hawaii playing the week before the game against Boise) is probably worth another 3.

Also, the Sagarin predictor overrates how mediocre teams with explosive offenses will do against good competition while slightly underrating them against terrible competition. For instance, there's no way that Texas Tech is the #18 team in the country, but they'd probably be favored by more than 30 against Rice.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
the Sagarin predictor overrates how bad teams with explosive offenses will do against good competition

[/ QUOTE ] isn't this a better description of Nevada than Hawaii?

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
POTW: Purdue/Indiana o61.5 bet 2.2u to win 2u

[/ QUOTE ]

just added another unit at -103

[iggymcfly]

BTW:

Hawaii at Nevada +1 (Risk 1.05u to win 1u)

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the Sagarin predictor overrates how bad teams with explosive offenses will do against good competition

[/ QUOTE ] isn't this a better description of Nevada than Hawaii?



[/ QUOTE ]

Not in this instance, no. The point is that Hawaii's being given too much credit for their blowouts of bad teams. Nevada's only won one game by more than 2 possessions all season.

[MyTurn2Raise]

N'western/Illinois u57 bet 3.06u to win 3u
tOSU/Michigan u48.5 bet 2.04u to win 2u
Penn St/Michigan St o50 bet 1.1u to win 1u
Kentucky/Georgia o60 bet 1.08u to win 1u

[MyTurn2Raise]

UNC +10 @ G Tech bet 1.1u to win 1u
Penn St -2 @ MSU bet 2.2u to win 2u
Syracuse +19.5 @ UConn bet 1.02u to win 1u
Vandy +12 @ Tennessee bet 1.05u to win 1u
Miss St +11.5 @ Arkansas bet 1.05u to win 1u
Boise St -34 v Idaho bet 1.02u to win 1u
NIU +16.5 @ Navy bet 1.01u to win 1u
Ole Miss +19 v LSU bet 1.05u to win 1u
N'Western +13.5 @ Illinois bet 1.01u to win 1u

[MyTurn2Raise]

Purdue ML -109 @ Indiana bet 2.18u to win 2u
Oregon St ML +140 @ Washington St bet 2.5u to win 3.5u
Wisconsin ML -500 @ Minnesota bet 7.5u to win 1.5u
Clemson ML -315 v Boston College bet 3.15u to win 1u
V Tech ML -800 v Miami Fl bet 2u to win 0.25u
Mizzou ML -250 @ K St bet 1.5u to win 0.6u
Oklahoma ML -280 @ T Tech bet 1.4u to win 0.5u

weird week...I see alot of favorites that I think are underpriced... hardly ever see that

[MyTurn2Raise]

Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : College Football Oklahoma 11/17/2007 8:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line -290 for Game
Select #2 : College Football Kansas 11/17/2007 2:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line -2500 for Game
Select #3 : College Football Boise State 11/17/2007 2:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line -10000 for Game
Select #4 : College Football Virginia Tech 11/17/2007 3:30:01 PM - (EST) Money Line -850 for Game
Select #5 : College Football Clemson 11/17/2007 7:45:01 PM - (EST) Money Line -330 for Game
Select #6 : College Football Alabama 11/17/2007 2:30:01 PM - (EST) Money Line -4000 for Game
Select #7 : College Football Florida 11/17/2007 12:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line -10000 for Game
Bet 1u To Win 1.13u

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
Hawaii at Nevada +6 (Risk 1.85u to win 1.5u) WIN
Add on at +6: (Risk 2.2u to win 2u) WIN
Hawaii at Nevada +1 (2nd half) (Risk 1.05u to win 1u) WIN
Hawaii at Nevada +210 (Risk 1.5u to win 3.15u) LOSS due to the WORST COACHING DECISION I'VE EVER SEEN FROM A I-A COACH

[/ QUOTE ]

So pretty good night regardless. 2-0 ATS, 0-1 ML, +3 units